Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China

Tian，Zhan1; Xu，Hanqing2; Sun，Laixiang3,4; Fan，Dongli5; Fischer，Günther4; Zhong，Honglin3; Zhang，Peiqun6; Pope，Edward7; Kent，Chris7; Wu，Wei8

2020

10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100150

Climate Services   影响因子和分区

2405-8807

2405-8807

The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and precipitation given the dominance of rainfed maize in the region. To secure high and stable level of maize production in the NFR under the warmer and drier future climate conditions, we employed a cross-scale model-coupling approach to identify the suitable maize cultivars and planting adaptation measures. Our simulation results show that, with proper adaptations of maize cultivars and adjustments of planting/harvest dates, both maize planting area and yield per unit of land will increase in most regions of NFR. This finding indicates that proactive adaptation can help local farmers to reap the benefits of increasing heat resource brought in by global warming, thus avoiding maize production losses as reported in other studies. This research can potentially contribute to the development of agricultural climate services to support climate-smart decisions for agricultural adaptations at the plot, farm and regional scales, in terms of planning the planting structure of multiple crops, breeding suitable maize varieties, and optimizing planting and field management schedules.

Agriculture climate service China Climate change Cross-scale model coupling Food security Maize production

SCI ; SSCI

英语

第一

National Natural Science Foundation of China[51761135024][41671113][41601049] ; UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund[AJYG-643BJQ]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000582024700009

ELSEVIER

2-s2.0-85078799239

Scopus

1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
2.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education),East China Normal University,Shanghai,200241,China
3.Department of Geographical Sciences,University of Maryland,College Park,20742,United States
4.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Laxenburg,A-2361,Austria
5.Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai,201418,China
6.National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China
7.Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter,United Kingdom
8.Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai Meteorological Bureau,Shanghai,200030,China

Tian，Zhan,Xu，Hanqing,Sun，Laixiang,et al. Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China[J]. Climate Services,2020,18.

Tian，Zhan.,Xu，Hanqing.,Sun，Laixiang.,Fan，Dongli.,Fischer，Günther.,...&Wu，Wei.(2020).Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China.Climate Services,18.

Tian，Zhan,et al."Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China".Climate Services 18(2020).