MODELING THE CONTROL OF COVID-19: IMPACT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS

Jia, Jiwei1,2; Ding, Jian1; Liu, Siyu3; Liao, Guidong1; Li, Jingzhi4; Duan, Ben5; Wang, Guoqing6; Zhang, Ran1,2

2020-03-16

Electronic Journal of Differential Equations   影响因子和分区

1072-6691

In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compartments to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China. The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination.

COVID-19 dynamical model isolation strategy vaccination strategy meteorological index

SCI

英语

ESI高被引

其他

Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Jilin Province[JJKH20200933KJ]

Mathematics

Mathematics, Applied ; Mathematics

WOS:000524999200001

TEXAS STATE UNIV

Web of Science

1.Jilin Univ, Sch Math, Changchun 130012, Jilin, Peoples R China
2.Interdisciplinary Ctr Jilin Prov Appl Math, Changchun 130012, Jilin, Peoples R China
3.Jilin Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Changchun 130021, Jilin, Peoples R China
4.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
5.Dalian Univ Technol, Sch Math Sci, Dalian 116024, Liaoning, Peoples R China
6.Jilin Univ, Sch Basic Med Sci, Changchun 130021, Jilin, Peoples R China

Jia, Jiwei,Ding, Jian,Liu, Siyu,et al. MODELING THE CONTROL OF COVID-19: IMPACT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS[J]. Electronic Journal of Differential Equations,2020.

Jia, Jiwei.,Ding, Jian.,Liu, Siyu.,Liao, Guidong.,Li, Jingzhi.,...&Zhang, Ran.(2020).MODELING THE CONTROL OF COVID-19: IMPACT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS.Electronic Journal of Differential Equations.

Jia, Jiwei,et al."MODELING THE CONTROL OF COVID-19: IMPACT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS".Electronic Journal of Differential Equations (2020).