Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future

Zhou，Zhaoqiang1,2; Ding，Yibo3,4; Shi，Haiyun1,2; Cai，Huanjie3,4; Fu，Qiang5; Liu，Suning1,2; Li，Tianxiao5

2020-10-01

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106642

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS   影响因子和分区

1470-160X

1872-7034

Vegetation is an important link between water, atmosphere and land, and the growth of vegetation is an important indicator of ecosystem change. Therefore, it is essential to study the dynamic changes of vegetation and predict the vegetation dynamics. Based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and statistical analysis (e.g., trend analysis methods and Hurst exponent), this study investigates the historical dynamic changes of vegetation in China, and the multi-regression model was used to construct a predict model from the perspective of water deficit. The future features were predicted under two representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios from 12 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The results showed that 1) most areas (80.1%) of China showed increasing trends in the annual NDVI change during 1982–2015, and the areas showing the degradation trends were mainly found in Northeast China, North Xinjiang and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; 2) the prediction model constructed by precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration (ET) can well predict the vegetation dynamics in China; and 3) the future vegetation in China will be better than that in the past, except for some areas (e.g., the northeastern and southeastern parts of China) in spring, and the dynamic changes of vegetation under RCP8.5 scenario will be greater than that under RCP4.5 scenario. Nevertheless, in spring, vegetation degradation cannot be ignored.

China Representative concentration pathways Statistical model Vegetation dynamics Vegetation index

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

National Natural Science Foundation of China[51909117][51709044][51879223] ; 111 Project[B12007] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0400201] ; "Young Talents" Project of Northeast Agricultural University[18QC28] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2019 M651247]

Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences

WOS:000555551600006

ELSEVIER

20202708895431

Dynamics ; Forecasting ; Regression analysis

Mathematical Statistics:922.2

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85087198989

Scopus

1.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
2.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
3.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,China
4.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,China
5.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,China

Zhou，Zhaoqiang,Ding，Yibo,Shi，Haiyun,et al. Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2020,117.

Zhou，Zhaoqiang.,Ding，Yibo.,Shi，Haiyun.,Cai，Huanjie.,Fu，Qiang.,...&Li，Tianxiao.(2020).Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,117.

Zhou，Zhaoqiang,et al."Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 117(2020).