Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China

Zou，Yi1; Pan，Stephen1; Zhao，Peng1; Han，Lei1; Wang，Xiaoxiang2; Hemerik，Lia3; Knops，Johannes1; van der Werf，Wopke4

2020

10.1371/journal.pone.0235247

PLoS One   影响因子和分区

1932-6203

1932-6203

China reported a major outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. We review the epidemic virus growth and decline curves in China using a phenomenological logistic growth model to summarize the outbreak dynamics using three parameters that characterize the epidemic's timing, rate and peak. During the initial phase, the number of virus cases doubled every 2.7 days (range 2.2-4.4 across provinces). The rate of increase in the number of reported cases peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January 2020. The peak in the number of reported sick cases occurred on average 18 days after the start of suppression measures. From the time of starting measures till the peak, the number of cases increased by a factor 39 in the province Hubei, and by a factor 9.5 for all of China (range: 6.2-20.4 in the other provinces). Complete suppression took up to 2 months (range: 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing and isolation of cases were in place. The suppression of the disease in China has been successful, demonstrating that suppression is a viable strategy to contain SARS-CoV2.

SCI

英语

其他

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Multidisciplinary Sciences

WOS:000546361900009

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE

2-s2.0-85087325878

Scopus

1.Department of Health and Environmental Sciences,Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University,Suzhou,China
2.School of the Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
3.Wageningen University,Biometris,Wageningen,Netherlands
4.Centre for Crop Systems Analysis,Wageningen University,Wageningen,Netherlands

Zou，Yi,Pan，Stephen,Zhao，Peng,et al. Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China[J]. PLoS One,2020,15(6).

Zou，Yi.,Pan，Stephen.,Zhao，Peng.,Han，Lei.,Wang，Xiaoxiang.,...&van der Werf，Wopke.(2020).Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China.PLoS One,15(6).

Zou，Yi,et al."Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China".PLoS One 15.6(2020).