偏远山区混合可再生能源系统的优选研究

THE OPTIMAL SELECTION RESEARCH OF HYBRID RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM IN REMOTE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS

周民华

11849173

硕士

环境工程

叶斌

2020-05-29

2020-05-29

哈尔滨工业大学

深圳

火力发电是目前我国电力生产的主要方式，其电力生产过程中燃烧矿物燃料，排放了大量以二氧化碳为主的温室气体，导致全球气候的变暖。相别于传统的火力发电，可再生能源发电对环境的影响较小。近些年来，相关可再生能源发电技术得到了迅速的发展，发电成本得到了明显的降低。对于偏远地区来说，传统的火力发电不仅在生产过程中会对环境产生不利影响，而且在远距离输电方面也面临较高的成本问题。所以，以光伏扶贫和风力扶贫为代表的电力扶贫作为我国实现精准扶贫目标的重要方式，在改善偏远村落环境效益的同时，也减少了成本支出。因此，混合可再生能源系统在偏远地区的发展具有很高的可行性。近些年，混合可再生能源系统相关的研究逐渐兴起，HOMER（Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable）模型由于其灵活的建模能力而受到研究者的青睐，该模型以最小净现值成本作为目标函数来进行模拟优化。本研究利用HOMER模型对广东省清远市连南县偏远山区村落构建了光储能源系统、风储能源系统、光-柴-储能源系统、风-柴-储能源系统、光-风-储能源系统以及光-风-柴-储-能源系统在内的六种系统配置方式，并分别确定了各自配置方式下的最优方案由于。六种方案在技术性、经济性、环境性以及社会影响等方面存在着较大的差别，本文利用TOPSIS （Technique for Oder Preferenceby Smilarity to Ideal Solution）法对六种方案进行了进一步的多目标决策过程，确定了适合研究区域的最优混合可再生能源配置方式。此外，为了确定不同因素对于系统排放量的影响程度，本文利用HOMER模型研究了不同参数对于模拟结果的影响。另外，为了识别混合可再生能源投入运行后的环境效益，本文利用Vensim软件构建了环境-经济-社会耦合的系统动力学模型，探究混合可再生能源系统在可再生能源技术发展、未来气候变化以及人口变化条件下运行所取得的环境效益。研究结果表明：六种不同的配置方式中技术性表现最优的是光-风-柴-储-能源系统，该系统的过剩电量以及未满足负荷比例最小，分别为4.21%与7.13%；经济性表现最优的为光-风-储能源系统，该系统的能源成本以及净现值成本为0.20 $/kWh与3.94 million $；环境性表现最优的为光储能源系统、风储能源系统以及光-风-储能源系统，上述系统均能实现100%程度上的温室气体减排。在充分考虑各方面指标对于系统的影响下，利用TOPSIS法确定的最优方案为光-风-柴-储-能源系统。系统动力学模拟结果表明，该系统在投入运营后所取得的环境效益呈上升趋势，预计在2029年可取得246983.50元的温室气体减排收益。灵敏度分析结果确定了不同参数的变化对于模拟结果的影响。该研究结果对研究区域建设生态农村，促进低碳经济，推进精准扶贫战略具有极为重要的借鉴意义。

Thermal power generation is the main way of power production in China at present. The burning of fossil fuels in the process of power production results in the emission of a large amount of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, leading to global warming. Compared with traditional thermal power generation, renewable power generation has less impact on the environment. In recent years, the related renewable energy power generation technology has developed rapidly and the power generation cost has been significantly reduced. For remote areas, the traditional thermal power generation will not only have a negative impact on the environment in the production process, but also face the high cost of long-distance transmission. Therefore, electricity poverty alleviation, represented by photovoltaic poverty alleviation and wind poverty alleviation, is an important way to achieve targeted poverty alleviation in China. It not only improves the environmental benefits of remote villages, but also reduces the cost. Therefore, the development of hybrid energy in remote areas is highly feasible.In recent years, HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable) model has been favored by researchers due to its flexible capacity, which uses the minmum net present cost as the objective function to conduct simulation optimization. This paper uses HOMER model to construct six scenarios to find the optimal result in corresponding scene for the villages in remote mountain areas of Liannan country, Qingyuan city, Guangdong province. There are great differences among the six schemes in terms of technology, economy, environment and social impact, and this paper uses TOPSIS (Technique for Oder Preferenceby Smilarity to Ideal Solution) method to conduct multi-objective decision-making process and determines the optimal scheme. In addition, to determine the impact of different factors on system simulation results and identify the environmental benefits of the optimal scheme, this paper uses HOMER model and Vensim software to conduct sensitivity analysis and build the coupled dynamics model. The results show that the best technical performance is the PV-Wind-Diesel-Battery system, which has the smallest excess electricity and unmet load. The best economic performance is the PV-Wind-Battery system, whose COE and NPC are 0.20 $/kWh and 3.94 M$. The best environmental performance is the PV-Battery system, Wind-Battery system and PV-Wind-Battery system, all of which can achieve 100% carbon emission reduction. With full consideration of the influence of various indicators on the system, the optimal scheme determined by TOPSIS method is the PV-Wind-Diesel-Battery system. The simulation results of system dynamics show that the environmental benefits are rising and emission reduction benefits of 246983.50 y can be achieved in 2029. The sensitivity analysis results confirmed the influence of different parameters on the simulation results. The results of this study are of great significance for the study of regional construction of ecological countryside, promotion of low-carbon economy and promotion of targeted poverty alleviation strategy.

气候变化 碳减排 能源系统 多目标决策 灵敏度分析 系统动力学

climate change carbon emissions energy systems multi-objective decision making sensitivity analysis system dynamics model

中文

联合培养

南方科技大学

周民华. 偏远山区混合可再生能源系统的优选研究[D]. 深圳. 哈尔滨工业大学,2020.