“十四五” 时期 X 市地方政府债务风险研究

RESEARCH ON RISK OF X’S LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT DURING 14TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN PERIODS

纪吉祥

11849192

硕士

金融

孙便霞

2020-05-28

2020-06-30

哈尔滨工业大学

深圳

“十四五”时期（2021-2025 年），我国人均 GPD 迈上 1 万美元台阶的同时，我国地方政府也将面临由人口红利消失、经济结构转型带来的经济下行压力和减税降费政策带来的冲击，地方政府的财政压力日益增加。 新《预算法》正式实施前， 事权与财权的不匹配导致我国地方政府债务的急剧扩张，最终累积形成了大量的存量债务，引发市场的担忧。 在“十四五” 到来前夕，提前预测地方政府的债务风险有助于了解地方财政的可持续性也有助于防范债务风险的发生。为研究地方政府债务风险，本文以东北地区典型城市 X 为例，采用案例分析和对比分析的方法对 X 市地方政府债务的成因、特点和风险水平进行了初步的研究。在此基础上深入分析了 X 市财政收支的构成情况以及变化趋势， 而后借助分税制改革后的历史数据，采用指数平滑模型和压力测试等方法预测了“十四五”时期 X 市各项财政收支情况。 最后运用结构模型方法分别预测了“十四五”时期 X 市地方政府一般债券和专项债券的违约概率。研究结果表明，“十四五”时期 X 市将迎来地方政府债务偿还的“小高峰”，届时地方政府面临较大的债务风险。 X 市地方政府专项债券受国有土地出让金收入影响较大，相比一般债券将面临更大的违约风险。 新《预算法》的实施只是实现了地方政府债务风险在时间上的转移，地方政府的债务问题并没有被真正解决。 此外， 正向激励的债务限额分配原则可能促使地方政府违约举债，增加法律风险和流动性风险。根据研究结果，建议有关部门适时提高部分地区的债务限额,以缓解地方政府债务风险。

In the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China ’s per capita GPD will exceed 10,000 US dollars. Local governments in China, at the same time, will face downward economic pressure caused by the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the transformation of the economic structure. The risk of government debt is increasing. Before the implementation of the new "Budget Law", the local government's debt expansion accumulated a large amount of stock debt, which made market concerns. Predicting the debt risk of local governments in advance will reduce default risk. Taking the X, a famous city located in northeast of China, as an example, we discuss the cause, characteristics and risk level of the local government debt bycomparative analysis and case study method. Furthermore, we analyze the financial revenue of X city, and apply the time series analysis method to predict the financial revenue and expenditure of X city during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Finally, weutilize the KVM model to predict the default probability of X city’s normal bonds and specialize bonds respectively.The results of the study show that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period， City X will usher in a "small peak" in local government debt repayment, when local governments face greater debt risks. The special bond of local government in City X is greatly affected by the income from the transfer of state-owned land, and will face greater default risk than normal bonds. The implementation of the new "Budget Law" only realized the transfer of local government debt risk in time, and the local government debt problem has not been really resolved. In addition, the principle of positive incentive debt limit allocation may prompt local governments to default and raise debts, increasing legal and liquidity risks. Therefore, it is suggested that the center government may consider increasing the debt quota of some regions in due course.

东北地区 地方政府债务 债务风险 违约概率

northeast region local government debt local government debt risk default probability

中文

联合培养

南方科技大学

纪吉祥. “十四五” 时期 X 市地方政府债务风险研究[D]. 深圳. 哈尔滨工业大学,2020.