Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?

Yin，Jie1,2,3; Jonkman，Sebastiaan4; Lin，Ning3; Yu，Dapeng5; Aerts，Jeroen6; Wilby，Robert5; Pan，Ming3; Wood，Eric3; Bricker，Jeremy4; Ke，Qian4; Zeng，Zhenzhong3,7; Zhao，Qing1; Ge，Jianzhong8; Wang，Jun1

2020-08-01

10.1029/2020EF001614

Earths Future   影响因子和分区

2328-4277

2328-4277

Sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence are expected to increase the risk of flooding and reliance on flood defenses for cities built on deltas. Here, we combine reliability analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effect of projected relative SLR on dike failures and flood hazards for Shanghai, one of the most exposed delta cities. We find that flood inundation is likely to occur in low-lying and poorly protected periurban/rural areas of the city even under the present-day sea level. However, without adaptation measures, the risk increases by a factor of 3–160 across the densely populated floodplain under projected SLR to 2100. Impacts of frequent flood events are predicted to be more affected by SLR than those with longer return periods. Our results imply that including reliability-based dike failures in flood simulations enables more credible flood risk assessment for global delta cities where conventional methods have assumed either overtopping only or complete failure.

delta city dike failure flood risk land subsidence sea level rise Shanghai

SCI ; SSCI

英语

其他

National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1508803][2017YFE0100700][2017YFE0107400] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871164][51761135024] ; National Social Science Fund of China[18ZDA105] ; Research Projects of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality[19DZ1201500][18ZR1410800] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2018ECNU-QKT001][2017ECNUKXK013] ; Institute of Eco-Chongming[ECNU-IEC-202001] ; National Science Foundation of the United States[EAR-1520683] ; UK Natural Environment Research Council[NE/R009600/1][NE/S017186/1] ; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)[ALWSD.2016.007] ; ESA-MOST Dragon 5 ESA project[58351]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000565640100001

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

2-s2.0-85089836140

Scopus

1.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education),East China Normal University,Shanghai,China
2.Institute of Eco-Chongming,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China
3.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Princeton University,Princeton,United States
4.Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Delft University of Technology,Delft,Netherlands
5.Geography and Environment,Loughborough University,Loughborough,United Kingdom
6.The Institute for Environmental Studies,Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,Amsterdam,Netherlands
7.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
8.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China

Yin，Jie,Jonkman，Sebastiaan,Lin，Ning,et al. Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?[J]. Earths Future,2020,8(8).

Yin，Jie.,Jonkman，Sebastiaan.,Lin，Ning.,Yu，Dapeng.,Aerts，Jeroen.,...&Wang，Jun.(2020).Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?.Earths Future,8(8).

Yin，Jie,et al."Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?".Earths Future 8.8(2020).