The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry

Song, Yazhi1; Liu, Tiansen2; Li, Yin3; Ye, Bin4

2020-08-28

10.1007/s10653-020-00701-4

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH   影响因子和分区

0269-4042

1573-2983

With the more efficient involvement of both technology and policy factors in China's whole industry-chain, the year 2020 is a key period for photovoltaic (PV) industry to achieve grid parity. In this context, COVID-19 may trigger a certain time-delay in new installed PV projects, thereby bringing an uncertain influence on the whole PV industry. To forecast the influence degree and influence cycle of COVID-19 on PV industry, this paper firstly clarifies the key features of epidemic situation as well as the basic rule of such pandemics' transmission along industry-chain. Then this paper constructs a system dynamics model targeting at cost accounting of PV power generation under the influence of COVID-19 and thus forecasts the variation rules, superposition effects and influence cycle of levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of PV power generation and the operations cost of each sub-system. Empirical results show that PV industry has a lag response to the COVID-19 for 1 quarter and periodic response for 4 quarters, which is mainly embodied in the rise of short-term production cost. At the same time, the influence of COVID-19 on the upstream firms of PV industry is stronger than that on downstream firms. With the gradual recovery of whole industry-chain, LCOE of PV power generation will rapidly return to the previous expected level of grid parity by the end of 2020.

COVID-19 Photovoltaic industry LCOE cost System dynamics analysis China

SCI

英语

通讯

Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project[20YJC630123] ; Natural Society Science Foundation of China[19BGL100] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71803074]

Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Water Resources

Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Water Resources

WOS:000563590200002

SPRINGER

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

Web of Science

1.Jiangsu Normal Univ, Business Sch, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Harbin Engn Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Harbin, Peoples R China
3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sun Yat Sen Business Sch, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
4.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

Song, Yazhi,Liu, Tiansen,Li, Yin,et al. The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH,2020.

Song, Yazhi,Liu, Tiansen,Li, Yin,&Ye, Bin.(2020).The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry.ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH.

Song, Yazhi,et al."The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry".ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH (2020).