Dynamics of seasonally frozen ground in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: historical trend and future projection

Ji, Fang1,2,3; Fan, Linfeng2,3; Andrews, Charles B.2,3,4; Yao, Yingying5; Zheng, Chunmiao2,3

2020-10

10.1088/1748-9326/abb731

Environmental Research Letters   影响因子和分区

1748-9326

Seasonally frozen ground (SFG) is a critical component of the Earth's surface that affects energy exchange and the water cycle in cold regions. The estimation of SFG depth has generally required intensive parameterization which has limited estimates in data-scarce regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). We propose a simple yet robust modeling framework employing ground surface temperatures as major model inputs to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFG depth in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) on the QTP. The model was calibrated using SFG depth measurements throughout the YZRB from 1980 to 2010. Results suggest that the SFG depth in the YZRB has decreased at a rate of 2.50 cm center dot a(-1)from 1980 to 2010. Future projections indicate that the SFG depth in the YZRB will continue to decrease in response to future warming. The present SFG may no longer exist by 2180 under the RCP 8.5 scenario (if not considering the transition of permafrost to SFG). The proposed modeling framework provides an important basis for the evaluation of the hydrological cycles (e.g. surface water-groundwater interactions) in cold regions under changing climatic conditions.

seasonally frozen ground ground temperature climate change Yarlung Zangbo River Basin Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

SCI ; EI

英语

通讯

National Natural Science Foundation of China[41861124003][91747204]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000576064900001

IOP PUBLISHING LTD

20204309390147

Rivers ; Groundwater ; Watersheds

Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Groundwater:444.2

Web of Science

1.Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Environm, Harbin, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Soil & Groundwater Pollut, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
4.SS Papadopulos & Associates Inc, Bethesda, MD USA
5.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Human Settlements & Civil Engn, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Xian, Peoples R China

Ji, Fang,Fan, Linfeng,Andrews, Charles B.,et al. Dynamics of seasonally frozen ground in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: historical trend and future projection[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020,15(10).

Ji, Fang,Fan, Linfeng,Andrews, Charles B.,Yao, Yingying,&Zheng, Chunmiao.(2020).Dynamics of seasonally frozen ground in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: historical trend and future projection.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).

Ji, Fang,et al."Dynamics of seasonally frozen ground in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: historical trend and future projection".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).