Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming

Park，Chang Eui1,2; Jeong，Sujong1,2; Harrington，Luke J.3; Lee，Myong In4; Zheng，Chunmiao5

2020-11-01

10.1088/1748-9326/abbd60

Environmental Research Letters   影响因子和分区

1748-9318

1748-9326

Population ageing, an increase in the older age group's portion of the total population, worsens the heat tolerance of a society. However, impacts of ageing on the social exposure to projected unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) are uncertain. We show that a shifting of the population distribution towards older ages amplifies the vulnerability of a country to the increasing frequency of UHSs as a result of warming during 2040-2070, especially in most populated regions such as China, India, and sub-Saharan countries. The warming scenarios from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are combined with population scenarios from three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 together to estimate the exposure to UHSs. The ageing-driven increase in the exposure of elderly to UHSs ranges 51-198, 91-261, and 47-156 million in China, India, and sub-Saharan countries, respectively, between population scenarios. In China, with decreasing total population, the exposure to UHSs will be increased by rapid population ageing. In India and sub-Saharan countries, the potential of ageing to raise the exposure to UHSs will be even larger than that of warming. In contrast, in aged societies with slow ageing trend, e.g. United States and Europe, the warming mainly increases the exposure to UHSs. Our results suggest the changing age structure could exacerbate a country's heat vulnerability despite limiting warming to a certain level in the future.

population ageing unprecedented hot summers heat exposure climate change Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SCI ; EI ; SSCI

英语

其他

Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program[KMI2020-01118] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890852]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000592340700001

IOP PUBLISHING LTD

20205109646579

Engineering Research:901.3

2-s2.0-85097644221

Scopus

1.Department of Environmental Planning,Graduate School of Environmental Studies,Seoul National University,Seoul,South Korea
2.Environmental Planning Institute,Seoul National University,Seoul,South Korea
3.Environmental Change Institute,University of Oxford,Oxford,United Kingdom
4.School of Urban and Environmental Engineering,UNIST,Ulsan,South Korea
5.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech),Shenzhen,China

Park，Chang Eui,Jeong，Sujong,Harrington，Luke J.,et al. Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020,15(11).

Park，Chang Eui,Jeong，Sujong,Harrington，Luke J.,Lee，Myong In,&Zheng，Chunmiao.(2020).Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(11).

Park，Chang Eui,et al."Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.11(2020).