Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase

Wang, Liang1; Didelot, Xavier2,3; Yang, Jing1; Wong, Gary4,5; Shi, Yi1; Liu, Wenjun1; Gao, George F.1,6; Bi, Yuhai1,6,7

2020-10-06

10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4

Nature Communications   影响因子和分区

2041-1723

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of secondary infections arising from an individual infection in the early phase of the outbreak was highly skewed, indicating that super-spreading events occurred.

SCI

英语

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通讯

Strategic Priority Research Programme of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19090118][XDB29010102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[32041010][31900155] ; Shenzhen Science and Technology Research and Development Project[JCYJ20180504165549581] ; NSFC Outstanding Young Scholars[31822055] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2017122]

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Multidisciplinary Sciences

WOS:000578458200002

NATURE RESEARCH

Web of Science

1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS TWAS Ctr Excellence Emerging Infect Dis CEEID, Ctr Influenza Res & Early Warning CASCIRE, Inst Microbiol,CAS Key Lab Pathogen Microbiol & I, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Warwick, Sch Life Sci, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
3.Univ Warwick, Dept Stat, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Pasteur Shanghai, Shanghai 200031, Peoples R China
5.Univ Laval, Dept Microbiol Infectiol & Immunol, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada
6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China
7.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Shenzhen Peoples Hosp 3, Hosp 2, Shenzhen Key Lab Pathogen & Immun, Shenzhen 518112, Peoples R China

Wang, Liang,Didelot, Xavier,Yang, Jing,et al. Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase[J]. Nature Communications,2020,11(1).

Wang, Liang.,Didelot, Xavier.,Yang, Jing.,Wong, Gary.,Shi, Yi.,...&Bi, Yuhai.(2020).Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase.Nature Communications,11(1).

Wang, Liang,et al."Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase".Nature Communications 11.1(2020).