南方科技大学知识苑(SUSTech KC): Long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between tir anomalies and earthquakes is still absent

题名	Long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between tir anomalies and earthquakes is still absent
作者	Zhang, Ying 1,2; Meng, Qingyan 1,2; Ouillon, Guy 3; Zhang, Linlin 1,2; Hu, Die 1,2; Ma, Weiyu 6; Sornette, Didier 4,5
通讯作者	Meng, Qingyan
发表日期	2021
DOI	10.1140/epjst/e2020-000248-4
发表期刊	European Physical Journal-Special Topics 影响因子和分区
ISSN	1951-6355
EISSN	1951-6401
卷号	230 期号:1
摘要	Recently, researchers have conducted long-term statistical studies to prove the correspondence between earthquakes and thermal infrared (TIR) anomalies. Upon obtaining relatively high true positive rates (TPR), it was concluded that TIR anomalies are closely related to earthquakes. However, the temporal-spatial clustering of earthquakes and overly large temporal-spatial windows will also contribute to high TPRs, and it is improper to correlate TIR anomalies with earthquakes without excluding these influences. In this paper, relevant studies will be tested according to the prior probability, random earthquake catalogs and Molchan diagram weighted by the Relative Intensity (RI) index. Our results show that the high TPR in the previous studies were caused by overly large determining windows, and the result was close to random guessing, which means that the extracted TIR anomalies make no contributions to predicting the timing, epicenter and magnitude of earthquakes. By comparing the original Molchan diagram and the Molchan diagram weighted by the RI index, we found that simply taking the fraction of space-time occupied by alarm may give a wrong evaluation for alarm. Moreover, long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between earthquakes and TIR anomalies in Greece and Taiwan are still absent.
相关链接	[来源记录]
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
学校署名	其他
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC1509202] ; Major Projects of High Resolution Earth Observation Systems of National Science and Technology[05-Y30B01-9001-19/20-1]
WOS研究方向	Physics
WOS类目	Physics, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000609483400007
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
来源库	Web of Science
引用统计	被引频次[WOS]：11
成果类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://sustech.caswiz.com/handle/2SGJ60CL/221245
专题	前沿与交叉科学研究院前沿与交叉科学研究院_风险分析预测与管控研究院
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Aerosp Informat Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Lithophyse, Nice, France 4.ETH, Zurich, Switzerland 5.Southern Univ Sci & Technol SUSTech, Acad Adv Interdisciplinary Studies, Inst Risk Anal Predict & Management Risks X, Shenzhen, Peoples R China 6.China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ying,Meng, Qingyan,Ouillon, Guy,et al. Long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between tir anomalies and earthquakes is still absent[J]. European Physical Journal-Special Topics,2021,230(1).
APA	Zhang, Ying.,Meng, Qingyan.,Ouillon, Guy.,Zhang, Linlin.,Hu, Die.,...&Sornette, Didier.(2021).Long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between tir anomalies and earthquakes is still absent.European Physical Journal-Special Topics,230(1).
MLA	Zhang, Ying,et al."Long-term statistical evidence proving the correspondence between tir anomalies and earthquakes is still absent".European Physical Journal-Special Topics 230.1(2021).