Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Pokhrel，Yadu1; Felfelani，Farshid1; Satoh，Yusuke2,3; Boulange，Julien2; Burek，Peter3; Gädeke，Anne4; Gerten，Dieter4,5; Gosling，Simon N.6; Grillakis，Manolis7; Gudmundsson，Lukas8; Hanasaki，Naota2; Kim，Hyungjun9; Koutroulis，Aristeidis7; Liu，Junguo10; Papadimitriou，Lamprini11; Schewe，Jacob4; Müller Schmied，Hannes12,13; Stacke，Tobias14; Telteu，Camelia Eliza12; Thiery，Wim8,15; Veldkamp，Ted3,16,17; Zhao，Fang18; Wada，Yoshihide3,17

2021-03-01

10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Nature Climate Change   影响因子和分区

1758-678X

1758-6798

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. Here, using ensemble hydrological simulations, we show that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong inter-ensemble agreement indicates high confidence in the projected changes that are driven primarily by climate forcing rather than land and water management activities. Declines in TWS translate to increases in future droughts. By the late twenty-first century, the global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976–2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation to avoid adverse TWS impacts and increased droughts, and the need for improved water resource management and adaptation.

SCI ; SSCI

英语

NI论文 ; ESI高被引

其他

WOS:000607033900005

2-s2.0-85100196380

Scopus

1.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Michigan State University,East Lansing,United States
2.National Institute for Environmental Studies,Tsukuba,Japan
3.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria
4.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),Potsdam,Germany
5.Geography Department,Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,Berlin,Germany
6.School of Geography,University of Nottingham,Nottingham,United Kingdom
7.School of Environmental Engineering,Technical University of Crete,Chania,Greece
8.Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,ETH Zurich,Zurich,Switzerland
9.Institute of Industrial Science,The University of Tokyo,Tokyo,Japan
10.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
11.Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI),Cranfield University,Cranfield,United Kingdom
12.Institute of Physical Geography,Goethe-University Frankfurt,Frankfurt am Main,Germany
13.Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt (SBiK-F),Frankfurt am Main,Germany
14.Institute of Coastal Research,Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG),Geesthacht,Germany
15.Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering,Vrije Universiteit Brussel,Brussels,Belgium
16.Department of Water & Climate Risk,VU University,Amsterdam,Netherlands
17.Department of Physical Geography,Utrecht University,Utrecht,Netherlands
18.School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China

Pokhrel，Yadu,Felfelani，Farshid,Satoh，Yusuke,et al. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change[J]. Nature Climate Change,2021,11(3):226-233.

Pokhrel，Yadu.,Felfelani，Farshid.,Satoh，Yusuke.,Boulange，Julien.,Burek，Peter.,...&Wada，Yoshihide.(2021).Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change.Nature Climate Change,11(3),226-233.

Pokhrel，Yadu,et al."Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change".Nature Climate Change 11.3(2021):226-233.