Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior

Gao，Kun1; Sun，Lijun2,3; Yang，Ying4; Meng，Fanyu5; Qu，Xiaobo1

2021-06-01

10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.025

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE   影响因子和分区

0965-8564

This study proposes an approach for modeling travel behavior under uncertainty coupling Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) with Multi-attribute Decision Making (MADM) theory. CPT is utilized to depict travelers’ evaluations of each attribute, and MADM describes the process of making tradeoffs among multiple conflicting criteria. Divergent perception principles for different attributes are considered in the proposed framework. The proposed approach is utilized for an empirical analysis concerning mode shift behavior for commuting in Shanghai of China, based on data collected by stated preference surveys. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional methods in terms of model performances and behavioral revelations. Empirical results demonstrate that sensitivity to gains and losses in cost and travel time are divergent in mode shift behavior. More importantly, it is found that travelers underestimate the occurrence chances of low-probability travel time and overestimate the occurrence changes of high-probability travel time in mode shift behavior, which is contrary to the findings from economics. Travelers show substantial loss aversion features as well. The heterogeneity in the value functions of CPT is investigated to shed light on differences in the evaluation process among individuals. Results reveal quite different empirical CPT parameters and behavioral mechanisms in mode shift behavior as compared to monetary experiments in economics. It highlights the importance of empirical estimations in various travel choice contexts to essentially understand travel behavior mechanisms, rather than arbitrary usage of findings from economics.

Cumulative prospect theory Nonlinear sensitivity Probability weighting Smart mobility Sustainable transportation

SCI ; SSCI ; EI

英语

其他

WOS:000651803200001

20211510188935

Decision making ; Decision theory ; Economics ; Uncertainty analysis

Air Transportation:431 ; Highway Transportation:432 ; Railroad Transportation:433 ; Waterway Transportation:434 ; Management:912.2 ; Probability Theory:922.1 ; Systems Science:961 ; Social Sciences:971

SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL

2-s2.0-85103651858

Scopus

1.Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Chalmers University of Technology,Gothenburg,SE-412 96,Sweden
2.College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,China
3.Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,China
4.School of Behavioural and Health Sciences,Australian Catholic University,Australia
5.Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies,Southern University of Science and Technology,China

Gao，Kun,Sun，Lijun,Yang，Ying,et al. Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior[J]. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE,2021,148:1-21.

Gao，Kun,Sun，Lijun,Yang，Ying,Meng，Fanyu,&Qu，Xiaobo.(2021).Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior.TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE,148,1-21.

Gao，Kun,et al."Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior".TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE 148(2021):1-21.