Effects of extreme temperature on China's tea production

The production of tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze), the world's second most consumed beverage, is susceptible to extreme weather events. However, our understanding about the impacts of extreme temperatures and climate change on tea yields remains fairly limited. Here we quantify the historical and predict future fluctuations in tea yield caused by extreme temperatures in China, the largest tea producing country. We found that both heat and cold extremes were associated with significantly reduced tea yields. In the present climate, dominating cold extremes influence more than half of China's tea production, with a maximum of 56.3% reduced annual production. In the near future, we predict positive net impacts of climate change on tea yield in all study regions at both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels. Climate warming may diminish the negative impacts of cold extremes to 14%, especially at the current most affected northern tea growing regions (>28° N). However, new areas of yield reduction by intensified heat extremes will emerge, up to 14%.26% yield losses estimated at the Yangtze River (∼30° N) and southern China (∼25° N) regions. Although the Paris Agreement targets limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, we expect up to 11%-24% heat-induced yield loss in Chongqing, Hunan, Anhui, and Zhejiang. Increasing heat extremes pose the most challenging changes for tea production in China. Therefore, addressing the regional difference of extreme temperature shifts is urgent for adapting tea production to climate change.