Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector

Ayoub, Ali1,2; Stankovski, Andrej1; Kroger, Wolfgang1,2; Sornette, Didier1,2,3

2021-10-01

10.1016/j.ress.2021.107820

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY   影响因子和分区

0951-8320

1879-0836

We analyze the ETH Zurich open curated database of 1250 worldwide nuclear events focused on safety significance with potentials for precursors, presented in the companion paper. We find that major accidents always trigger a wave of "reactive" reporting as well as changes in regulatory or corporate management that last 5 to 6 years, mostly due to increased alertness, improved transparency, uncovering latent design errors, and heightened public pressure. The leading causes for multi-unit events are found to be external triggers and design issues, confirming the need to adapt PSAs to cover multi-unit events accordingly. Common-cause failures (CCF) are found to occur fairly frequently, at different levels, and can significantly erode the safety of the plant. From the lessons learned from this analysis, we suggest that frequent review of components design and operating procedures, employing different teams for testing and maintenance activities on redundant trains, and sharing operational experience between plants of similar designs, are some of the steps that should be taken in order to limit future occurrences of CCFs and beyond that further improve plant safety. We identify some quantitative signs of aging for plants after the age of 25. Our findings stress the need for larger recording, reliance, and sharing of operational data to support learning from experience and avoid reoccurrence of accidents and events.

Nuclear accidents Nuclear safety Precursors Operational experience PSA Risk Statistical analysis

SCI ; EI

英语

其他

Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science

Engineering, Industrial ; Operations Research & Management Science

WOS:000663912500051

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

20212410501099

Accidents ; Risk assessment

Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Mathematical Statistics:922.2

ENGINEERING

Web of Science

1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, D MTEC, Chair Entrepreneurial Risks, Zurich, Switzerland
2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Risk Ctr, Zurich, Switzerland
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol SUSTech, Inst Risk Anal Predict & Management Risks X, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

Ayoub, Ali,Stankovski, Andrej,Kroger, Wolfgang,et al. Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector[J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,2021,214.

Ayoub, Ali,Stankovski, Andrej,Kroger, Wolfgang,&Sornette, Didier.(2021).Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector.RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,214.

Ayoub, Ali,et al."Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector".RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 214(2021).