Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China

Hao，Yu1,2,3,4,5; Zhang，Zong Yong1,6,7; Yang，Chuxiao1,2; Wu，Haitao1,2

2021-10-01

10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120936

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE   影响因子和分区

0040-1625

Since 2010, a severe lack of migrant workers has occurred in some provinces in China, indicating a sharp decline in labor force transfer in the primary industry during the economic transition. This decline is believed to have resulted in a decrease in carbon emissions. A neoclassical framework was built to estimate the labor force mitigation effect on CO emissions theoretically. The specific features of the nexus of CO emissions, economic development, and rural-urban transfer were investigated and evaluated within this framework. Two important propositions were derived from the theoretical model. First, the higher the ratio of the labor force working in the non-agricultural sector, the higher the emissions. Second, the speed of labor force transfer from the agricultural to non-agricultural sectors impacts peak emission levels. In the empirical study, data from China's 29 provinces for 1995-2012 were utilized to examine the two propositions. The GMM method was employed to control the possible endogeneity problem and introduce dynamics to the model. The empirical results verified the theoretical propositions. In addition, we concluded that the impact of labor transfer on CO emissions is subject to socioeconomic development levels in the long run.

Agricultural industry China CO2 emissions Labor force transfer Non-agricultural industry

SSCI ; EI

英语

其他

WOS:000697912400006

20212710597842

Agriculture ; Economic and social effects ; Industrial economics

Inorganic Compounds:804.2 ; Agricultural Equipment and Methods; Vegetation and Pest Control:821 ; Industrial Economics:911.2 ; Social Sciences:971

SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL

2-s2.0-85109082578

Scopus

1.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,100081,China
2.School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,100081,China
3.Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing,Beijing,100081,China
4.Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing,Beijing,100081,China
5.Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing,100081,China
6.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,School of International Development,University of East Anglia,Norwich,NR4 7TJ,United Kingdom
7.School of Environmental Science &Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China

Hao，Yu,Zhang，Zong Yong,Yang，Chuxiao,et al. Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2021,171.

Hao，Yu,Zhang，Zong Yong,Yang，Chuxiao,&Wu，Haitao.(2021).Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,171.

Hao，Yu,et al."Does structural labor change affect CO2 emissions? Theoretical and empirical evidence from China".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 171(2021).