Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?

Wang，Shuai1; Toumi，Ralf1; Ye，Qinghua2,3; Ke，Qian3; Bricker，Jeremy3,4; Tian，Zhan5; Sun，Laixiang6,7

2021

10.1002/asl.1058

Atmospheric Science Letters   影响因子和分区

1530-261X

It has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N) to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s) to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long-term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.

climate change landfall storm surge tropical cyclone

SCI

英语

通讯

WOS:000660986000001

2-s2.0-85107737982

Scopus

1.Department of Physics,Imperial College London,London,United Kingdom
2.Deltares,Delft,Netherlands
3.Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,Delft University of Technology,Delft,Netherlands
4.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor,United States
5.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology of China,Shenzhen,China
6.Department of Geographical Sciences,University of Maryland,College Park,United States
7.School of Finance and Management,SOAS University of London,London,United Kingdom

Wang，Shuai,Toumi，Ralf,Ye，Qinghua,et al. Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?[J]. Atmospheric Science Letters,2021.

Wang，Shuai.,Toumi，Ralf.,Ye，Qinghua.,Ke，Qian.,Bricker，Jeremy.,...&Sun，Laixiang.(2021).Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?.Atmospheric Science Letters.

Wang，Shuai,et al."Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?".Atmospheric Science Letters (2021).