The Effects of Climate Change on Chinese Medicinal Yam Over North China Under the High-Resolution PRECIS Projection

The arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro-climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi-arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high-resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS-2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro-Ecological Zone model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high-resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively.