On the Comparison of Seismic Ground Motion Simulated by Physics-Based Dynamic Rupture and Predicted by Empirical Attenuation Equations

Xin, Danhua; Zhang, Zhenguo

2021-10-01

10.1785/0120210077

BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA   影响因子和分区

0037-1106

1943-3573

The improvement of ground-motion prediction accuracy is crucial for seismic hazard and risk assessment and engineering practices. Empirically regressed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are widely used for such purposes in decades. However, the inherent drawbacks of GMPEs, such as the ergodic assumption, lack of near-source observation, and insufficiency to deal with the spatial correlation issue, have motivated geophysicists to find better alternatives. Recent studies on well-recorded earthquakes have illustrated that physics-based simulation (PBS) methods can provide predictions that are comparable to or ever superior to GMPE predictions. The increasing interests in applying PBSs also pose the need to statistically compare these simulations against GMPE predictions or actual observations. We notice the limitations in previous studies focusing on the predictive capability check of PBS. This article is to illustrate how more reasonable check of PBS should be conducted. We consider GMPE works in generally judging the reasonability of PBS, but PBS has the advantage in characterizing the heterogeneity of ground motion of a moderate-to large earthquake, especially when considering the complexities in fault geometry, regional stress fields, rock properties, surface of the Earth, and site effects. We would rather recommend that, in the future, different GMPEs are only used to preliminarily judge the reasonability of PBS scenarios; then the ground motions simulated by those reasonable PBS scenarios (not limited to one) are further used for the following seismic hazard and risk assessment.

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFC1500205-01] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41922024]

Geochemistry & Geophysics

Geochemistry & Geophysics

WOS:000702519400001

SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER

20214010975432

Earthquake effects ; Equations of motion ; Hazards ; Motion estimation ; Risk assessment ; Risk perception ; Seismic response

Secondary Earthquake Effects:484.2 ; Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Calculus:921.2

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

Xin, Danhua,Zhang, Zhenguo. On the Comparison of Seismic Ground Motion Simulated by Physics-Based Dynamic Rupture and Predicted by Empirical Attenuation Equations[J]. BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA,2021,111(5):2595-2616.

Xin, Danhua,&Zhang, Zhenguo.(2021).On the Comparison of Seismic Ground Motion Simulated by Physics-Based Dynamic Rupture and Predicted by Empirical Attenuation Equations.BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA,111(5),2595-2616.

Xin, Danhua,et al."On the Comparison of Seismic Ground Motion Simulated by Physics-Based Dynamic Rupture and Predicted by Empirical Attenuation Equations".BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 111.5(2021):2595-2616.