Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin

Ahmad, Ijaz1; Zhang, Fan2; Tayyab, Muhammad3; Anjum, Muhammad Naveed4; Zaman, Muhammad5,6; Liu, Junguo7; Farid, Hafiz Umar8; Saddique, Qaisar9

2018-11-15

10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.019

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   影响因子和分区

0169-8095

1873-2895

This paper investigates the annual and seasonal precipitation variability at 20 stations over upper Indus River basin (UIRB) by using an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope estimator tests. Moreover, the annual precipitation time series is investigated for five precipitation intensities i.e. light, low, moderate, high and heavy; and on a seasonal scale for extreme values i.e. light and heavy precipitation intensities. Annual precipitation showed an increasing trend at four stations in the northeast region and a decreasing trend at two stations in the southeast region of UIRB. On a seasonal scale, the results showed that Garidopatta, Peshawar, Astore and Gupis stations are more sensitive to seasonal precipitation variabilities. Changes in heavy precipitation (> 90th percentile) are found more severe in winter and summer seasons in the northern regions suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. However, a reduction in flooding event observed during the spring season in the southern regions of the UIRB indicating a shift in the precipitation regime from south to north. The results of light precipitation (< 10th percentile) intensity showed that winter and spring seasons are more vulnerable to the occurrence of prolonged drought events. Moreover, ITA method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the precipitation series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of this study could help to understand seasonal and annual precipitation variability over UIRB and will have imperative insinuations for further studies.

Trend analysis ITA Mann-Kendall Precipitation Indus River basin

SCI ; EI

英语

其他

National Science Fund for Distinguished Youth Scholars[41625001]

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000442169800029

ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC

20182705406028

Floods ; Precipitation (chemical) ; Rivers ; Watersheds

Precipitation:443.3 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Chemical Operations:802.3

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

1.Univ Engn & Technol, Ctr Excellence Water Resources Engn, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.China Three Gorges Univ, Coll Hydraul & Environm Engn, Yichang 443002, Peoples R China
4.Chineese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
5.Jiangsu Univ, Res Ctr Fluid Machinery Engn & Technol, Zhenjiang 212013, Peoples R China
6.Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Irrigat & Drainage, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
7.South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
8.Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Dept Agr Engn, Multan, Pakistan
9.Northwest A&F Univ, Key Lab Agr Soil & Water Engn Arid & Semiarid Are, Minist Educ, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

Ahmad, Ijaz,Zhang, Fan,Tayyab, Muhammad,et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,213:346-360.

Ahmad, Ijaz.,Zhang, Fan.,Tayyab, Muhammad.,Anjum, Muhammad Naveed.,Zaman, Muhammad.,...&Saddique, Qaisar.(2018).Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,213,346-360.

Ahmad, Ijaz,et al."Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and extreme values over upper Indus River basin".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 213(2018):346-360.