Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications

Qin, Huanhuan1,2; Cai, Ximing3,4; Zheng, Chunmiao1,4,5

2018-02

10.2166/wp.2017.168

Water Policy   影响因子和分区

1366-7017

Sustaining the water supply in megacities is an enormous challenge. To address this challenge, it is especially important to predict water demand changes in megacities. This paper presents a system dynamics model to predict the future water demands of different sectors considering multiple factors, including population, structure of the economy, and water supply and use technologies. Compared with traditional methods such as the time series method and structure analysis method, the proposed model takes into account the interconnections, non-linear relationships and feedbacks between the various factors in a systems context. The model is applied to Beijing, a megacity with a population over 20 million and very limited water availability. It is found that the total water demand is likely to increase by at least 36.1% (up to 62.5%) by 2030 compared with that in 2011, and the water deficits vary from -0.36 x 10(9) to 1.80 x 10(9) m(3) in 2030. In addition, scenarios are designed to account for impacts associated with economic development, climate change and inter-basin water transfers. It is shown that climate change may have a large impact on the water supply reliability in Beijing. The water shortage problems can be alleviated via inter-basin water transfers.

Beijing Climate change Megacities Scenario analysis System dynamics Water demand prediction

SCI

英语

通讯

Doctoral Start-up Fund of the East China Institute of Technology[DHBK2016104]

Water Resources

Water Resources

WOS:000426097800004

IWA PUBLISHING

Web of Science

1.Peking Univ, Inst Water Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
2.East China Inst Technol, State Key Lab Breeding Base Nucl Resources & Envi, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
3.Univ Illinois, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
4.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen Key Lab Soil & Groundwater Pollut Contro, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
5.Univ Alabama, Dept Geol Sci, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA

Qin, Huanhuan,Cai, Ximing,Zheng, Chunmiao. Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications[J]. Water Policy,2018,20(1):53-76.

Qin, Huanhuan,Cai, Ximing,&Zheng, Chunmiao.(2018).Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications.Water Policy,20(1),53-76.

Qin, Huanhuan,et al."Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications".Water Policy 20.1(2018):53-76.