An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

Feng, Dapeng1; Zheng, Yi2; Mao, Yixin3; Zhang, Aijing1,4; Wu, Bin1; Li, Jinguo1; Tian, Yong2; Wu, Xin1

2018-02

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.041

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY   影响因子和分区

0022-1694

1879-2707

Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater pumping are imperative for adaptation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change Human activities Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling Coastal area Water resources Groundwater

SCI ; EI

英语

通讯

Southern University of Science and Technology[G01296001]

Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources

Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources

WOS:000425077300026

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

20175204574980

Coastal zones ; Flow of water ; Groundwater ; Groundwater resources ; Pumps ; Surface water resources ; Surface waters ; Uncertainty analysis ; Water management ; Water resources

Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Water Resources:444 ; Marine Science and Oceanography:471 ; Pumps:618.2 ; Liquid Dynamics:631.1.1 ; Probability Theory:922.1

ENGINEERING

Web of Science

1.Peking Univ, Coll Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Univ Washington, Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
4.Minist Water Resources, Bur South North Water Transfer Planning Designing, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China

Feng, Dapeng,Zheng, Yi,Mao, Yixin,et al. An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2018,557:305-320.

Feng, Dapeng.,Zheng, Yi.,Mao, Yixin.,Zhang, Aijing.,Wu, Bin.,...&Wu, Xin.(2018).An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,557,305-320.

Feng, Dapeng,et al."An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 557(2018):305-320.