Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015

Qi, Wei1; Feng, Lian1; Yang, Hong2,3; Liu, Junguo1; Zheng, Yi1; Shi, Haiyun1; Wang, Lei4; Chen, Deliang5

2022-03-01

10.1088/1748-9326/ac5561

Environmental Research Letters   影响因子和分区

1748-9326

Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin could severely damage socio-economic development, river ecosystems, food security, hydropower production and transportation in China. The Yangtze River Basin accounts for approximately 30% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and is an engine for the country's rapid economic growth. One commonly held belief is that climate change has intensified extreme flood events, leading to increasing economic damage in the Yangtze River. Here, we quantitatively attributed economic exposure to climate change (i.e. climate-induced changes in weather-related events) and GDP growth, and assessed benefits, i.e. the reduction in economic exposure, from flood defence dikes of varying heights. To do this, we developed a framework by combing a large scale hydrological model, a hydraulic model, and long-term GDP data. We find that climate-induced changes in flood inundation area and resulted economic exposure were decreasing overall, whereas GDP growth drove the increases of potential economic exposure to floods. We also reveal that the basin average flood defence dikes should be at least approximately 3.5 m high to achieve an about ten-year average flood occurrence. Our results have significant policy and socioeconomic development implications.

flood risk yangtze river economic exposure hydrological extreme

SCI ; EI ; SSCI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[51809136] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971304] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402] ; Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee[JCYJ20190809 155205559] ; Stable Support Plan Program of Shenzhen Natural Science Fund[20200925155151006] ; Shenzhen Science and Technology Program[KCXFZ20201221173007020]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000765543300001

IOP Publishing Ltd

20221211813382

Climate change ; Climate models ; Economic and social effects ; Economics ; Ecosystems ; Flood control ; Food supply ; Levees ; Rivers ; Watersheds

Flood Control:442.1 ; Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Ecology and Ecosystems:454.3 ; Food Products:822.3 ; Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Mathematics:921 ; Social Sciences:971

Web of Science

1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
2.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland
3.Univ Basel, Dept Environm Sci, MGU, Basel, Switzerland
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Box 460, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden

Qi, Wei,Feng, Lian,Yang, Hong,et al. Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2022,17(3).

Qi, Wei.,Feng, Lian.,Yang, Hong.,Liu, Junguo.,Zheng, Yi.,...&Chen, Deliang.(2022).Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015.Environmental Research Letters,17(3).

Qi, Wei,et al."Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015".Environmental Research Letters 17.3(2022).