Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China

Yuan，Ye1; Sun，Chuan1; Tang，Xiuchuan2; Cheng，Cheng1; Mombaerts，Laurent3; Wang，Maolin1; Hu，Tao5; Sun，Chenyu6; Guo，Yuqi1; Li，Xiuting1; Xu，Hui7; Ren，Tongxin8; Xiao，Yang1; Xiao，Yaru5; Zhu，Hongling9; Wu，Honghan10; Li，Kezhi10; Chen，Chuming11; Liu，Yingxia11; Liang，Zhichao12; Cao，Zhiguo1; Zhang，Hai Tao1; Paschaldis，Ioannis Ch13; Liu，Quanying9; Goncalves，Jorge3,4; Zhong，Qiang5; Yan，Li5

2022

10.1016/j.eng.2020.10.013

Engineering   影响因子和分区

2095-8099

2096-0026

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here, we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan–Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low, intermediate, or high risk, with an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); it has also been validated in independent cohorts.

COVID-19 Mortality risk prediction Risk score

EI ; SCI

英语

其他

Huazhong University of Science and Technology[2020kfyXGYJ023];

Engineering

Engineering, Multidisciplinary

WOS:000788434800016

ELSEVIER

20220411491825

Forecasting ; Hospitals

Medicine and Pharmacology:461.6 ; Hospitals, Equipment and Supplies:462.2

2-s2.0-85107429910

Scopus

1.School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430074,China
2.School of Mechanical Science and Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430074,China
3.Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine,University of Luxembourg,Belval,L-4367,Luxembourg
4.Department of Plant Sciences,University of Cambridge,Cambridge,UK,CB2 1TN,United Kingdom
5.Department of Emergency,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430030,China
6.AMITA Health Saint Joseph Hospital Chicago,Chicago,60657,United States
7.Department of Anesthesiology,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430030,China
8.Huazhong University of Science and Technology-Wuxi Research Institute,Wuxi,214174,China
9.Division of Cardiology,Department of Internal Medicine,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430030,China
10.Institute of Health Informatics,University College London,London,UK,NW1 2DA,United Kingdom
11.Department of Biomedical Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
12.Department of Infectious Diseases,Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology,National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Disease,The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen (Second Hospital Affiliated with the Southern University of Science and Technology),Shenzhen,518055,China
13.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering & Division of Systems Engineering & Department of Biomedical Engineering,Boston University,Boston,02215,United States

Yuan，Ye,Sun，Chuan,Tang，Xiuchuan,et al. Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China[J]. Engineering,2022,8:116-121.

Yuan，Ye.,Sun，Chuan.,Tang，Xiuchuan.,Cheng，Cheng.,Mombaerts，Laurent.,...&Yan，Li.(2022).Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China.Engineering,8,116-121.

Yuan，Ye,et al."Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China".Engineering 8(2022):116-121.