Increasing Concurrent Drought Probability in Global Main Crop Production Countries

Qi，Wei1; Feng，Lian1; Yang，Hong2,3; Liu，Junguo1

2022-03-28

10.1029/2021GL097060

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS   影响因子和分区

0094-8276

1944-8007

Understanding concurrent drought events in global main croplands is crucially important for food security, effective adaptation to climate change and human well-being. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on concurrent drought probability changes among main crop production countries on a global scale, especially for the future. Here, we studied concurrent drought among 26 main crop production countries for the time period 1861–2099. During the historical period, probability of concurrent moderate and severe drought among the countries was relatively low, and the maximum concurrent moderate and severe drought probability will double and triple under RCP8.5 extreme climate, respectively. Concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under RCP8.5, respectively, compared with zero in the historical period. Limiting RCPs to RCP2.6 can decrease the concurrent probability of severe drought at least 2% (at least 3% for RCP8.5).

climate change crop production country cropland drought extreme event

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971304];National Natural Science Foundation of China[51809136];Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402];

Geology

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

WOS:000777608200013

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

20221411882159

Climate change ; Crops ; Cultivation ; Food supply ; Probability

Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Precipitation:443.3 ; Water Resources:444 ; Agricultural Methods:821.3 ; Agricultural Products:821.4 ; Food Products:822.3 ; Probability Theory:922.1

GEOSCIENCES

2-s2.0-85127379575

Scopus

1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
2.Eawag,Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology,Duebendorf,Switzerland
3.Department of Environmental Science,MGU,University of Basel,Basel,Switzerland

Qi，Wei,Feng，Lian,Yang，Hong,et al. Increasing Concurrent Drought Probability in Global Main Crop Production Countries[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2022,49(6).

Qi，Wei,Feng，Lian,Yang，Hong,&Liu，Junguo.(2022).Increasing Concurrent Drought Probability in Global Main Crop Production Countries.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,49(6).

Qi，Wei,et al."Increasing Concurrent Drought Probability in Global Main Crop Production Countries".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 49.6(2022).