气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化对区域水文过程的影响

流域环境变化能够导致径流等水文要素随之响应，气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已被广泛认为是影响区域水文过程的主要驱动力。气候变化，尤其是降水和气温的变化，对径流具有直接或间接影响，而土地利用/覆盖变化通过改变下垫面土壤水分、地表蒸散发及地表截留量影响区域水文过程。因此，定量评估气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化对区域水文过程的影响对区域生态系统、土地利用规划、水资源管理和可持续发展具有重要意义。

作为全球四大湾区之一，粤港澳大湾区是一个经济发达、人口密集、高度城市化的区域，气候以亚热带季风为主，水资源对该地区的可持续发展尤为重要。本研究选取粤港澳大湾区作为研究区域，基于SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型在月尺度上构建了适用于该地区的流域水文模型，并通过情景设置，探究了1979-2018年期间在不同情景下气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化对粤港澳大湾区的径流、土壤含水量和蒸散发等水文要素的影响。此外，由于SWAT模型的评价指标倾向于反映丰水期的水文特征，往往无法兼顾枯水期的模拟效果，因此，本研究进一步以东江流域为例，分别对丰、枯水期径流进行了单独模拟，确定了SWAT模型中对径流过程最为敏感的参数及其取值，构建了能够更好反映枯水期水文特征的SWAT模型。本研究的主要结论如下：

（1）以东江流域为研究区域，通过SWAT模拟该流域径流，对模型进行率定和验证，评估模型模拟月径流的表现。结果表明，评价指标纳什效率系数（NSE）和决定性系数（R²）在率定期和验证期均大于0.80，模型模拟效果良好，因此，SWAT模型适用于该流域。

（2）基于1979-2018年时段的降水和气温数据，采用非参数的分析方法确定了气象要素变化的突变点并分析了粤港澳大湾区气象要素的时空演变特征。结果表明，1997年为研究时段气象要素时间变化的突变点，确定了基准期（1979-1997年）和干扰期（1998-2018年）。在时间变化上，粤港澳大湾区的降水在基准期呈显著的上升趋势，而在干扰期呈下降的趋势，温度在基准期和干扰期呈不同幅度的上升趋势。在空间变化上，粤港澳大湾区的降水和气温在基准期和干扰期呈现不同的空间分布特征。与基准期相比，粤港澳大湾区的西北部、东北部和中东部地区的降水减少，而粤港澳大湾区的东北部地区的温度上升。

（3）基于1992年和2018年的土地利用/覆盖数据，分析了粤港澳大湾区土地利用/覆盖的时空演变特征。结果表明，大湾区在1992年到2018年时段经历了显著的城市化。耕地、草本植物、树木或灌木覆盖、裸露区域和水体面积在减少，其减少的主要原因是部分用地转变为城市区域。

(4) 结合情景设置，本研究量化了气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化对粤港澳大湾区水文过程的单独和综合影响。结果表明，气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化减少了粤港澳大湾区八大口门的径流，其中，土地利用/覆盖变化对径流的影响略大于气候变化对径流的影响。此外，分析了气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化下虎门和磨刀门的蒸散发和土壤含水量的影响，气候变化导致了蒸散发的增加、土壤含水量的减少，而土地利用/覆盖变化导致了蒸散发的减少、土壤含水量的增加。

(5) 利用累计距平方法划分了东江流域的丰水期和枯水期，探究了SWAT模型在模拟丰水期和枯水期径流时参数的敏感性。结果表明，东江流域在丰水期和枯水期的模拟效率存在明显差异，丰水期的率定效果更好。敏感参数主要集中在影响地表产流、土壤蒸散发、地下水补给径流和河道汇流等过程的参数，它们在丰、枯水期具有不同的取值和排序。

Environmental changes in watersheds can lead to consequent responses of hydrological elements (e.g., runoff). Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) have been widely recognized as the main driving forces that may affect regional hydrological processes. Climate change (e.g., changes in precipitation and temperature) has direct or indirect effects on runoff, while LUCC affects regional hydrological processes by altering subsurface soil moisture, surface evaporation, and surface interception. Therefore, quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and LUCC on regional hydrological processes is of great value for regional ecosystems, land use planning, water resources management, and sustainable development.

As one of the world's four major bay areas, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an economically developed, densely populated, and highly urbanized region. This region is dominated by a subtropical monsoon climate, and water resources are particularly important to its sustainable development. This study selects the GBA as the study area, constructs a watershed hydrological model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at the monthly scale. Moreover, this study explores the effects of climate change and LUCC on runoff, soil water content, and evapotranspiration in the GBA under different scenarios during 1979-2018.

In addition, since the evaluation indicators of the SWAT model tend to reflect the hydrological characteristics in the wet season, the simulation performance in the dry season cannot be taken into account. This study further takes the East River Basin as an example, and separately simulates the runoff in the wet and dry seasons, determines the parameters and their values that are most sensitive to the runoff process in the SWAT model, and builds a SWAT model that can better reflect the hydrological characteristics in the dry season. The main conclusions of this study are as follows.

(1) Taking the East River basin as the study area, this study simulated the runoff process by the SWAT model, and evaluated the model performance at the monthly scale through model calibration and validation. The results show that the evaluation indices (NSE and R²) were greater than 0.80 in both calibration period and validation period. The model performance was overall good, and therefore, the SWAT model was applicable to this region.

(2) Based on the precipitation and temperature data for the time period 1979-2018, nonparametric methods were used to determine the abrupt change points of the meteorological elements. The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the meteorological elements in the GBA were also analyzed. The results show that 1997 was the abrupt change point of the meteorological elements during the study period, and thus, the baseline period (1979-1997) and the disturbance period (1998-2018) were identified. In terms of temporal variation, precipitation in the GBA showed a significant upward trend during the baseline period and a downward trend during the disturbance period, while temperature showed upward trends at different magnitudes during both baseline and disturbance periods. In terms of spatial variation, precipitation and temperature in the GBA showed different characteristics during the baseline and disturbance periods. Compared with the baseline period, precipitation decreased in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of the GBA, while temperature increased in the northeastern part of the GBA.

(3) Based on the land use/cover data in 1992 and 2018, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover in the GBA were analyzed. The results show that the GBA experienced significant urbanization during the period from 1992 to 2018. The area of arable land, herbaceous vegetation, tree or shrub cover, bare areas and water bodies decreased, mainly due to that all land use/cover types except urban areas were partially transformed into urban areas.

(4) Combined with the scenario setting, this study quantified the individual and combined effects of climate change and LUCC on hydrological processes in the GBA. The results show that climate change and LUCC reduced the runoff from eight gateways in the GBA, where the impact of LUCC was slightly larger than that of climate change. In addition, the effects of climate change and LUCC on evapotranspiration and soil water content at Humen and Modaomen gates were analyzed. At these two gates, climate change increased evapotranspiration and decreased soil water content, while LUCC showed the opposite results.

(5) The sensitivity of the model parameters in simulating runoff in the wet season and dry season was investigated, taking the East River basin as an example. The results show that there was a significant difference between the simulation efficiency in the wet season and dry season, which was better in the wet season. The sensitive parameters were mainly the parameters that can affect the surface runoff generation process, soil evaporation process, groundwater recharge process, and river confluence process, and they had different values and rankings in the wet season and dry season.

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