全球虚拟水流动对国家水资源短缺的影响研究

水资源短缺威胁着人类社会的可持续发展。人类用水需求激增和气候变化加剧了全球水资源短缺状况。水资源短缺除了受到区域水资源禀赋的制约，还受到区域取用水量的影响。通常，区域总用水量包括直接用水和蕴含在商品或服务中的间接用水。使用区域当地水资源生产的商品或服务一部分满足了区域内部需求，另一部分通过国际贸易满足了区域外部需求。然而，已有研究在评估贸易对水资源短缺的影响时认为用水量本身并未受到国际贸易的影响，因而无法对其进行准确地评估。为了解决这一问题，本研究基于虚拟水贸易理论，评价了不受贸易影响和受到贸易影响的区域水短缺状况，量化了国际贸易对国家水资源短缺的影响并识别了国际贸易带来的水资源短缺转移关键路径。

本研究基于投入产出模型，结合全球189个国家/地区及26个部门的水资源消耗量，核算了各国家及部门间的虚拟水进出口量，厘清了全球虚拟水贸易格局；基于Logistic模型改进了被广泛使用的Falkenmark水短缺指标，评价了不受国际贸易影响的区域水短缺状况；将虚拟水净进口量作为区域“虚拟可用水量”，进一步改进该指标，评价了受到国际贸易影响的区域水短缺状况，量化了国际贸易对区域水短缺的净影响；基于改进的Falkenmark指标和稀缺加权的投入产出方法，核算了各国家/地区的虚拟稀缺水贸易量，厘清了全球虚拟稀缺水贸易格局，识别了关键国家/地区的水短缺转移关键路径。

结果显示，国际贸易在不同程度上缓解了32个高收入和中高收入国家的超过22亿人口面临的水短缺问题；但也让21个低收入和中低收入国家/地区的21亿人口面临更加严重的缺水问题。国际贸易对水短缺的影响主要受与食品相关的部门主导。此外，超过35%的水短缺从欧美、西亚和东亚的高收入国家/地区转移到南亚和北非等本身已存在一定缺水问题的中等偏下收入国家。研究还发现，与缺水国家邻近的国家/地区的国际贸易，在加剧该缺水国家的水资源短缺状况上发挥着重要作用。例如，约旦从埃及、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、沙特等严重缺水的邻国大量进口稀缺水，进一步加剧了这些缺水邻国的水资源短缺状况。

为保障全球变化背景下的水安全，处于国际贸易中不同角色的国家应当采取不同的调整措施：对于本身缺水但从更缺水区域大量进口水密集型产品的“压力转移型”国家/地区来说，应提高粮食自给率，丰富上游进口来源，并积极寻找替代商品；对于本身缺水但依然大量出口水密集型产品的“高成本”的国家/地区来说，应当提高农业生产技术水平以降低其虚拟水含量，推广水循环再利用设施以提高家庭和工业用水效率，并详细规划本国的国际贸易结构，兼顾经济利益的同时减少稀缺水出口。为保障水资源的可持续利用，全球各国应当协同管理伴随着国际贸易流动的“虚拟”水资源

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