雄安新区洪灾应急管理

洪涝灾害因其发生频率高、影响范围广，对人民群众的生命财产安全和社会经济的良好发展构成了巨大的威胁。随着近年来全球气候的变化，极端天气及其伴生的洪涝灾害的发生频率显著增加。与此同时，世界各国的城市化进程均在不断加快，财富与人口不断向城市聚集，洪涝灾害给城市地区带来的生命财产损失风险相较过去大幅增加。城市雨水与洪涝灾害管理是城市应急管理的重要内容，当前城市尺度雨水和洪涝灾害管理领域的研究重点在于海绵城市建设，涉及应急疏散的相关研究较少。

为丰富城市尺度洪灾应急管理领域的研究成果与分析工具，本研究构建了一个由基于主体的居民应急响应模型和基于MATSim 的交通仿真模型耦合而成的洪灾应急疏散模型。同时以雄安新区为例，在雄安新区的洪灾应急疏散模型中设计了安置点设置、疏散准备时间、疏散路径选择、人口密度设置和道路交通状况五个情景并进行应急疏散仿真模拟。本研究据此探究了不同的应急管理措施、居民出行特征、城市基础设施等因素对雄安新区洪灾应急疏散的影响，以此为雄安新区的洪灾应急管理提供政策建议与决策支持。

为丰富城研究结果显示：在百年一遇洪水背景下，随着雄安新区启用安置点数量的增加，疏散进程总体呈加快趋势，但启用的安置点数量超过3个后疏散进程的加快不再明显。当启用安置点数量大于3时，雄安新区待疏散居民从家出发至到达目标安置点的期望用时约为2.7小时，在疏散指令发布后的12小时内可将超过90%居民疏散至目标安置点。疏散过程中，在时间和空间层面引导待疏散居民合理分流、错峰疏散可以帮助待疏散居民充分利用路网，减少居民疏散至安置点的期望用时，改善道路拥堵状况。在雄安新区当前道路交通状况和人口密度情形下，路网通行能力在应急疏散时已近饱和，将主干道扩容可大幅减少居民疏散至安置点的期望用时，加快疏散进程。未来雄安新区的发展建设可侧重于开发新城区、合理控制人口密度、改善当前道路交通基础设施，以便及时快速的完成应急疏散。

Floods can cause devastating damages to urban infrastructure and property, leading to significant amount of socioeconomic losses and fatalities. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and the associated floods have increased significantly due to changes in climate and land surface. As a result, the risk of life and property loss caused by floods has also increased significantly because of rapid urbanization and population growth in urban areas. During an extreme flood event when it is impractical to construct the necessary infrastructure to resist floods, it is essential for policy makers to develop efficient evacuation plans for individuals to move from the flood zone to safe areas.

In this study, a flood evacuation modeling framework is constructed that couples (1) an agent-based model for modeling residents’ behaviors and responses to flood risk, and (2) a large-scale traffic simulation model, MATSim, for modeling residents’ evacuation processes in a road network. The modeling framework is implemented in the Xiong'an New Area, a large residential area with high flood risk in North China. A scenario analysis approach is applied to assess the region’s evacuation processes under various evacuation scenarios (i.e., shelter arrangements, residents’ evacuation preparation time, route selection choices during evacuation, residential density, and road conditions).

The modeling results show that residents’ evacuation process can be accelerated by increasing the number of evacuation shelters in the Xiong'an New Area. However, this effect is not noticeable if the number of shelters is larger than three. If there are three shelters in the area, , the average evacuation time for people moving from their homes to the target shelter is about 2.76 hours, and more than 90% of the people can evacuate to the shelter within 12 hours after the evacuation warning is issued to the public. During evacuation process, guiding the residents to evacuate in several sequential groups, rather than in one group, can make full use of road capacity, reduce the traffic congestion, and improve the region’s evacuation processes. The modeling results also show that residents’ evacuation processes are greatly constrained by the limited traffic capacity in the Xiong’an New Area. Expanding the traffic capacity in the main road of the area can greatly reduce evacuation times. Therefore, the future development of the Xiong’an New Area should focus on improving the current traffic infrastructure and/or to reduce the population density, which can enable a more rapid and efficient emergency evacuation during extreme flood events.

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