Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network

Shi, Yaxin1,2; Liu, Suning3; Shi, Haiyun1,2

2022-06-01

10.1007/s11269-022-03205-1

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT   影响因子和分区

0920-4741

1573-1650

Water competition is a key issue in the study of the water-food-energy nexus (WFEN), which can affect water, food, and energy security and can generate notable challenges in water resource management. Since Bayesian network can express parameter uncertainty with a certain probability distribution while reflecting the dependencies of each variable, this study used a Bayesian network to model the WFEN in the Pearl River Region (PRR). The network structure can intuitively represent complex causal relationships, and the form of the probability distribution can effectively reflect the variable uncertainty. The responses of the Bayesian network model under different scenarios were used to analyse the major influencing factors, and water competition relationships in various sectors were explored. The results indicated that water competition between the different sectors was very complex and could dynamically change under the different scenarios. For example, an increase in hydropower and flow to sea could lead to a decrease in irrigation water, but an increase in irrigation water did not necessarily reduce hydropower and flow to sea. Water for hydropower generation and salt tide alleviation were obviously affected by the total offstream water use, but there existed no obvious water competition between these aspects in general. However, when offstream water use remained stable, a competitive relationship was observed between hydropower and flow to sea. Overall, the outcomes of this study could be of great significance to further analyse the WFEN in other regions.

Water-Food-Energy Nexus Water Competition Bayesian Network Pearl River Region

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

Engineering ; Water Resources

Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources

WOS:000807301200002

SPRINGER

20222412214962

Bayesian networks ; Complex networks ; Energy security ; Hydroelectric power ; Irrigation ; Probability distributions ; Water management

Energy Policy:525.6 ; Hydroelectric Power Plants:611.1 ; Computer Systems and Equipment:722 ; Agricultural Methods:821.3 ; Combinatorial Mathematics, Includes Graph Theory, Set Theory:921.4 ; Probability Theory:922.1

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

Web of Science

1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Soil & Groundwater Pollut, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Ctr Climate Phys, Inst Basic Sci, Busan, South Korea

Shi, Yaxin,Liu, Suning,Shi, Haiyun. Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2022,36:3349-3366.

Shi, Yaxin,Liu, Suning,&Shi, Haiyun.(2022).Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,36,3349-3366.

Shi, Yaxin,et al."Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 36(2022):3349-3366.