湘潭市工业部门碳减排分析

随着全球加强对温室效应的控制目标，我国面向气候变化提出了3060的“双碳”目标，这对中国每一个城市及地区，尤其是工业部门的发展提出了巨大的挑战。湘潭市作为长江中游的老工业城市，其在中国属于欠发达地区，因此，工业仍是城市发展的支柱，通过本研究发现，湘潭市工业发展存在着产业结构偏重工业的问题，如何探索在绿色发展理念下低碳发展的路径，对湘潭控制“双碳”工作至关重要。本研究通过对湘潭统计年鉴及部门数据等的分析得出湘潭市经济社会与工业发展未来仍具有较大碳减排的发展空间，相应需要更多的从煤的能源消耗转向可再生能源；通过碳排放系数法对湘潭市工业部门碳排放进行了初步分析，并利用LMDI因素分解法得出城镇人口规模增加与工业经济增长是湘潭目前碳排放增长的主要因素，加强能源强度节能改造是降低碳排放的主要因素；通过构建LEAP-Industry-Xiangtan模型，并设定三种经济发展及碳减排情景对湘潭市工业部门能源消耗量和碳排放量进行初步预测，只有加强碳减排力度的情景才能在2030年实现能源消耗量达峰（1250万吨标准煤），在2027年碳排放量达峰（3474.33万吨二氧化碳）；产业结构优化与清洁能源替代是湘潭市工业部门碳减排必须进行的措施，重点对湘潭市钢铁行业进行产能控制与技术改造，对电热行业进行燃气机组替代与进一步开发风力发电、太阳能发电。同时其他行业也需要进行节能技术改造、发展循环经济使废物余能综合利用、构建能源精细化管理系统等

With the global strengthening of the control goal of the greenhouse effect, China has proposed “Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” (“Dual-Carbon”) target for climate change, which poses a huge challenge to the development path of every city and region in China, especially the industrial sector. As a traditional industrial city in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Xiangtan City is an under developing area in China. Therefore, industry is still the backbone of urban development. Through this study, it is found that the heavy industry accounts for a large proportion of Xiangtan's industrial structure. The path of low-carbon development concept is very important for Xiangtan to control the "Dual Carbon" work. Through the analysis of Xiangtan Statistical Yearbook and departmental data, this research concluded that Xiangtan City still has strong demand of large space for carbon emission reduction in the future for its economic, social and industrial development. Correspondingly, more energy needs to be shifted from coal to renewable energy; The carbon emissions coefficient method is used to preliminarily analyze the carbon emissions of the industrial sector in Xiangtan City, and the LMDI is used to conclude that the increase in urban population size and industrial economic growth are the main factors for the current growth of carbon emissions in Xiangtan, while Reducing the energy intensity is the major factor in carbon emissions reducing. By constructing the LEAP-Industry-Xiangtan model, and setting three scenarios of economic development and carbon emission reduction, the energy consumption and carbon emission of the industrial sector in Xiangtan City are preliminarily predicted. Only in the scenario of strengthening carbon emissions reduction, the energy consumption reaching the peak (12.5 million tons of standard coal) in 2030 and the carbon emissions reaching the peak (34.7433 million tons of carbon dioxide) in 2027; Industrial structure optimization and clean energy replacement are necessary for carbon emission reduction in the industrial sector of Xiangtan City The measures to be carried out focus on the production capacity control and technological transformation of the iron and steel industry in Xiangtan City, the replacement of gas-fired units in the electric heating industry, and the further development of wind power and solar power. At the same time, other industries also need to carry out energy-saving technological transformation, develop a circular economy to comprehensively utilize waste and residual energy, and build a refined energy management system.

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