Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Fatalities in Mainland China Based on Physical Simulation and Empirical Statistics-A Case Study of the 2021 Yangbi Earthquake

Li, Yilong1; Zhang, Zhenguo1,2,3; Wang, Wenqiang1; Feng, Xuping1

2022-06-01

10.3390/ijerph19116820

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH   影响因子和分区

1660-4601

At present, earthquakes cannot be predicted. Scientific decision-making and rescue after an earthquake are the main means of mitigating the immediate consequences of earthquake disasters. If emergency response level and earthquake-related fatalities can be estimated rapidly and quantitatively, this estimation will provide timely, scientific guidance to government organizations and relevant institutions to make decisions on earthquake relief and resource allocation, thereby reducing potential losses. To achieve this goal, a rapid earthquake fatality estimation method for Mainland China is proposed herein, based on a combination of physical simulations and empirical statistics. The numerical approach was based on the three-dimensional (3-D) curved grid finite difference method (CG-FDM), implemented for graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture, to rapidly simulate the entire physical propagation of the seismic wavefield from the source to the surface for a large-scale natural earthquake over a 3-D undulating terrain. Simulated seismic intensity data were used as an input for the fatality estimation model to estimate the fatality and emergency response level. The estimation model was developed by regression analysis of the data on human loss, intensity distribution, and population exposure from the Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog (MCCDE-CAT). We used the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake as a study case to provide estimated results within 1 h after the earthquake. The number of fatalities estimated by the model was in the range of 0-10 (five expected fatalities). Therefore, Level IV earthquake emergency response plan should have been activated (the government actually overestimated the damage and activated a Level II emergency response plan). The local government finally reported three deaths during this earthquake, which is consistent with the model predictions. We also conducted a case study on a 2013 Ms7.0 earthquake in the discussion, which further proved the effectiveness of the method. The proposed method will play an important role in post-earthquake emergency response and disaster assessment in Mainland China. It can assist decision-makers to undertake scientifically-based actions to mitigate the consequences of earthquakes and could be used as a reference approach for any country or region.

earthquake disaster earthquake fatalities rapid estimation earthquake relief disaster assessment earthquake emergency response numerical simulation empirical method Yangbi earthquake

SCI ; SSCI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

National Natural Science Foundation of China[41922024] ; Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)[GML2019ZD0203] ; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology[2022B1212010002] ; Shenzhen Science and Technology Program[KQTD20170810111725321]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

WOS:000808779600001

MDPI

Web of Science

1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
2.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Guangzho, Guangzhou 511458, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Geophys High Resolut Imagi, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China

Li, Yilong,Zhang, Zhenguo,Wang, Wenqiang,et al. Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Fatalities in Mainland China Based on Physical Simulation and Empirical Statistics-A Case Study of the 2021 Yangbi Earthquake[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2022,19(11).

Li, Yilong,Zhang, Zhenguo,Wang, Wenqiang,&Feng, Xuping.(2022).Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Fatalities in Mainland China Based on Physical Simulation and Empirical Statistics-A Case Study of the 2021 Yangbi Earthquake.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,19(11).

Li, Yilong,et al."Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Fatalities in Mainland China Based on Physical Simulation and Empirical Statistics-A Case Study of the 2021 Yangbi Earthquake".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 19.11(2022).