Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin

Ding, Yibo1; Jiang, Chengzhen1; Zhou, Zhaoqiang2; Gao, Tianao3; Wang, Shurong4; Zhang, Xuecai1; Cai, Huanjie5; Shi, Haiyun2

2022-06-01

10.1007/s00382-022-06379-x

CLIMATE DYNAMICS   影响因子和分区

0930-7575

1432-0894

Precipitation is a main part of the regional hydrological cycle, and global warming affects the hydrological cycle because regional precipitation is impacted by mechanistic changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming. This study presents an exploration of the composition variation characteristics of precipitation time series under global climate change. Twelve CMIP6 models were used to forecast precipitation changes in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data were applied in the analysis of historical precipitation. Trend analysis, precipitation bias correction, and Fourier functions were used to analyze the future precipitation change characteristics. Our results showed that the IPSL-CM6A-LR and EC-Earth3-CC models had excellent performances in simulating precipitation in the YRB. Most CMIP6 models showed that precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario had a higher increasing trend and was higher than that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The multimodel ensemble means (MEM) of CMIP6 precipitation showed that the future trend and stochastic component of precipitation had a higher degree of contribution than the historical trend and stochastic component of precipitation. However, the future periodic component of precipitation had a lower degree of contribution than the historical component. Most models showed that the degree of contribution of the periodic component of precipitation in Period IV (2015-2057) was higher than that in Period V (2058-2100). Most models showed similar degrees of contribution in Period I (1901-1938), Period II (1939-1976), and Period III (1977-2014). However, the degree of contribution of the stochastic component in 2058-2100 was lower than that in 2015-2057. This study improves the understanding of future precipitation change characteristics and provides a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the YRB.

Precipitation CMIP6 Trend analysis Climate change

SCI

英语

通讯

major projects of a high-resolution Earth observation system[80-H30G03-9001-20/22] ; special scientific research projects (civil part) of the high-resolution Earth observation system[80-H30G03-9001-20/22] ; Postdoctoral Research and Development Project of Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd.[2020BSHZL06] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879223] ; 111 Project[B12007] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0400201]

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000815765200003

SPRINGER

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

1.Yellow River Engn Consulting Co Ltd, 109 Jinshui Rd, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
3.Univ Sydney, Sch Engn, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia
4.Tongyuan Water Resources Sci Technol Co Ltd, Jinan 250101, Peoples R China
5.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architectural Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

Ding, Yibo,Jiang, Chengzhen,Zhou, Zhaoqiang,et al. Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2022,60(3-4).

Ding, Yibo.,Jiang, Chengzhen.,Zhou, Zhaoqiang.,Gao, Tianao.,Wang, Shurong.,...&Shi, Haiyun.(2022).Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,60(3-4).

Ding, Yibo,et al."Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 60.3-4(2022).