Quantifying the value of negative inspection outcomes in fatigue maintenance planning: Cost reduction, risk mitigation and reliability growth

Zou，Guang1,2; Kolios，Athanasios1

2022-10-01

10.1016/j.ress.2022.108668

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY   影响因子和分区

0951-8320

1879-0836

With the development of sensing, non-destructive evaluation and information technology, benefits of informed structural maintenance decision-making based on systematic decision analysis have been increasingly appreci-ated and required. This tendency necessitates methods for quantifying the value of information (VoI) provided by condition inspections (or monitoring) and fully utilizing the VoI, i.e., transforming information into improved maintenance decisions that add value. While positive inspection outcomes are often considered as indicators for maintenance actions, implications of negative outcomes on reliability, risk and costs are seldom quantified. The objective of this study is to investigate potential benefits of negative outcomes to maintenance costs, failure risk and reliability from a maintenance planning perspective by developing a probabilistic VoI computational method. A structural maintenance decision-making framework and a VoI computational method are developed, considering uncertainties associated with structural deterioration forecast and inspection outcomes. For the first time, influences of maintenance effect modeling on VoI computation are investigated. The framework and method are illustrated on a marine structure. It is concluded that the VoI from negative outcomes can be attributed to reductions of both maintenance costs and failure risk, especially when high-quality inspection techniques are used and maintenance effects are imperfect.

Structuralreliability Maintenancemodeling Bayesiandecisionoptimization Valueofinformation Lifecyclecosts Riskanalysis

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

European Union[745625] ; Southern University of Science and Technology[Y01316134]

Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science

Engineering, Industrial ; Operations Research & Management Science

WOS:000829043700002

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

20222712319485

Condition based maintenance ; Cost benefit analysis ; Decision making ; Deterioration ; Forecasting ; Inspection ; Nondestructive examination ; Offshore structures ; Reliability analysis ; Risk analysis ; Risk assessment ; Safety engineering

Marine Drilling Rigs and Platforms:674.2 ; Cost and Value Engineering; Industrial Economics:911 ; Management:912.2 ; Maintenance:913.5 ; Safety Engineering:914 ; Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Statistical Methods:922 ; Materials Science:951

ENGINEERING

2-s2.0-85133282707

Web of Science

1.Department of Ocean Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
2.Offshore Engineering Institute,University of Strathclyde,Glasgow,UK,United Kingdom

Zou，Guang,Kolios，Athanasios. Quantifying the value of negative inspection outcomes in fatigue maintenance planning: Cost reduction, risk mitigation and reliability growth[J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,2022,226.

Zou，Guang,&Kolios，Athanasios.(2022).Quantifying the value of negative inspection outcomes in fatigue maintenance planning: Cost reduction, risk mitigation and reliability growth.RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,226.

Zou，Guang,et al."Quantifying the value of negative inspection outcomes in fatigue maintenance planning: Cost reduction, risk mitigation and reliability growth".RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 226(2022).