Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Cai，Chaonan1,2; Zhang，Xiaoyan3,4; Zha，Jianjun5; Li，Jie3; Li，Junmin1,2

2022-07-01

10.3390/f13071051

FORESTS   影响因子和分区

1999-4907

Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species' response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation.

Horsfieldia tetratepala maximum entropy model species distribution habitat suitability shared socioeconomic pathways endangered species

SCI ; EI

英语

非南科大

Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation Program of China[2017FY100100] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[30800133]

Forestry

Forestry

WOS:000831838700001

MDPI

20222812346248

Climate change ; Climate models ; Conservation ; Ecosystems ; Entropy ; Population distribution ; Sustainable development

Surveying:405.3 ; Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Environmental Engineering:454 ; Ecology and Ecosystems:454.3 ; Thermodynamics:641.1 ; Codes and Standards:902.2 ; Mathematics:921

2-s2.0-85133666778

Web of Science

1.School of Advanced Study,Taizhou University,Taizhou,318000,China
2.Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation,Taizhou University,Taizhou,318000,China
3.Plant Phylogenetics and Conservation Group,Center for Integrative Conservation,Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming,650223,China
4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China
5.Taizhou Research Institute,Southern University of Science and Technology,Taizhou,318000,China

Cai，Chaonan,Zhang，Xiaoyan,Zha，Jianjun,et al. Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China[J]. FORESTS,2022,13(7).

Cai，Chaonan,Zhang，Xiaoyan,Zha，Jianjun,Li，Jie,&Li，Junmin.(2022).Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China.FORESTS,13(7).

Cai，Chaonan,et al."Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China".FORESTS 13.7(2022).