Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models

Chen, Jilong1,2; Tam, Chi Yung1,3; Wang, Ziqian4; Cheung, Kevin5; Li, Ying6; Lau, Ngar-Cheung7,8; Lau, Dick-Shum Dickson9

2022-08-01

10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0436.1

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE   影响因子和分区

0894-8755

1520-0442

Possible thermodynamic effects of global warming on the landfalling typhoons that affect South China and their associated storm surges over Pearl River Delta region are investigated, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model based on the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique. Twenty intense historical TCs that brought extreme storm surges to Hong Kong since the 1960s are selected and replicated by the 3-km WRF Model, with the outputs to drive the SLOSH model in storm surge simulation. The tracks, intensities, storm structure, and induced storm surges are well simulated. The PGW technique is then used to build a warmer background climate for the 20 selected TCs in the period of 2075-99 under the RCP8.5 scenario. To obtain a better adjusted warming environment, a pre-PGW adjustment method is developed. Comparing the same TCs in PGW experiments and historical runs, the TC lifetime peak (landfall) intensity can be intensified by about 9% +/- 8% (12% +/- 13%), with a similar to 3% increase of TC peak intensity per degree of SST warming being inferred. The TCs are projected to be more compact, with the radius of maximum wind (RMW) reduced by similar to 7% +/- 10%. TC precipitation is also expected to increase, with the extreme precipitation within the eyewall strengthened by 22% +/- 12%. All the above characters have passed the Student's t test at 0.05 significance level. Finally, the projected induced storm surges near the Hong Kong waters are not significantly tested, although a weak storm surge height increase tendency is revealed.

Storm surges Climate change Greenhouse gases Hurricanes typhoons Numerical analysis modeling

SCI ; EI

英语

其他

National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC1510400] ; Hong Kong Research Grant Council's General Research Fund[14306115] ; Chinese University of Hong Kong[A.02.20.00401] ; Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[2020B0301030004] ; Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou[201906010054] ; Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies[2020B1212060025] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42105161]

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000828206000002

AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC

20223612680086

Floods ; Greenhouse gases ; Hurricanes ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Storms ; Weather forecasting

Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Precipitation:443.3 ; Air Pollution Sources:451.1

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

1.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Earth & Atmospher Sci Programme, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
2.Shenzhen Inst Meteorol Innovat, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area Weather, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
5.New South Wales Dept Planning Ind & Environm, Sci Econ Insights Div, Climate Res Climate & Atmospher Sci, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
6.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Ocean Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
9.Hong Kong Observ, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

Chen, Jilong,Tam, Chi Yung,Wang, Ziqian,et al. Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2022,35(15):4905-4926.

Chen, Jilong.,Tam, Chi Yung.,Wang, Ziqian.,Cheung, Kevin.,Li, Ying.,...&Lau, Dick-Shum Dickson.(2022).Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,35(15),4905-4926.

Chen, Jilong,et al."Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 35.15(2022):4905-4926.