Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

Zhang，Gengxi1; Wang，Huimin2; Gan，Thian Yew3; Zhang，Shuyu4; Shi，Lijie1; Zhao，Jin3; Su，Xiaoling2; Song，Songbai2

2022-11-01

10.1029/2022EF003015

Earth's Future   影响因子和分区

2328-4277

Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid-21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6). Globally, compared to 1985–2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society.

climate warming CMIP6 projections compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) global climate models population exposure

SCI

英语

其他

Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[205080691];National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879222];National Natural Science Foundation of China[52079111];

WOS:000879385800001

2-s2.0-85143207191

Scopus

1.College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou,China
2.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A & F University,Yangling,China
3.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Alberta,Edmonton,Canada
4.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China

Zhang，Gengxi,Wang，Huimin,Gan，Thian Yew,et al. Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events[J]. Earth's Future,2022,10(11).

Zhang，Gengxi.,Wang，Huimin.,Gan，Thian Yew.,Zhang，Shuyu.,Shi，Lijie.,...&Song，Songbai.(2022).Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events.Earth's Future,10(11).

Zhang，Gengxi,et al."Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events".Earth's Future 10.11(2022).