Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate

Kent, Chris1; Pope, Edward1; Dunstone, Nick1; Scaife, Adam A.1,2; Tian, Zhan3; Clark, Robin1; Zhang, Lixia4; Davie, Jemma1; Lewis, Kirsty1

2019-10

10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0096.1

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology   影响因子和分区

1558-8424

1558-8432

The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) of China is a critically important area of maize cultivation accounting for similar to 30% of national production. It is predominantly rain fed, meaning that adverse climate conditions such as drought can significantly affect productivity. Forewarning of such events, to improve contingency planning, could therefore be highly beneficial to the agricultural sector. For this, an improved estimate of drought exposure, and the associated large-scale circulation patterns, is of critical importance. We address these important questions by employing a large ensemble of initialized climate model simulations. These simulations provide 80 times as many summers as the equivalent observational dataset and highlight several limitations of the recent observational record. For example, the chance of a drought greater in area than any current observed event is approximately 5% per year, suggesting the risk of a major drought is significantly underestimated if based solely on recent events. The combination of a weakened East Asian jet stream and intensified subpolar jet are found to be associated with severe NFR drought through enhanced upper-level convergence and anomalous descent, reducing moisture and suppressing precipitation. We identify a strong 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly dipole pattern as a useful metric to identify this mechanism for relevance to seasonal predictability. This work can inform policy planning and decision-making through an improved understanding of the near-term climate exposure and form the basis of new climate services.

Interannual variability Agriculture Risk assessment

SCI ; EI

英语

其他

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000491361600001

AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC

20194807768795

Cultivation ; Decision making ; Drought

Meteorology:443 ; Water Resources:444 ; Agricultural Methods:821.3 ; Management:912.2 ; Mathematics:921

Web of Science

1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
4.Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China

Kent, Chris,Pope, Edward,Dunstone, Nick,et al. Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2019,58(10):2247-2258.

Kent, Chris.,Pope, Edward.,Dunstone, Nick.,Scaife, Adam A..,Tian, Zhan.,...&Lewis, Kirsty.(2019).Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,58(10),2247-2258.

Kent, Chris,et al."Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate".Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 58.10(2019):2247-2258.