Risk of endocrine disruption in the Nanfei River and its tributaries assessed and controlled using MIKE11 基于MIKE11模型的南淝河及其支流内分泌干扰风险评价与调控

In order to find an effective approach to evaluate and control endocrine disrupting risks in urban river, MIKE11 model was used to assess estrogen-based endocrine disruption risk. The hydrodynamic module and convection diffusion module of MIKE11 were applied to simulate the transport and transformation of estrogens in a typical urban river Nanfei River. Meanwhile, estrogen-based endocrine disruption effects in Nanfei Rivers and its tributaries were also assessed using this model. Then, the measurements of risk control were proposed based on the future goal of the water pollution control. Assuming the best case of estrogen discharge, above 50% of river reaches were predicted to be at risk of endocrine disruption. Under the worst case with the highest estrogen discharges, 19%, 53% and 67% of river reaches reached the higher risk level in wet, normal and dry seasons, respectively. The reaches with higher risk were located at the main stream of Nanfei River and its tributaries (Ershibu River, Banqiao River and Dianbu River). Three scenario analysis for reducing the endocrine disruption were conducted based on the reachable schemes of water pollution control at short and long terms. The results showed near 50% of reaches had potential risk in the case of single intercepting point-source sewage even with the low level estrogen discharge (best case). Combining point-source sewage interception with 70% of nonpoint-source pollution control can make almost all of river reaches with no risk, associated with the best-case scenario (low level estrogen discharge).With long-term goal of sewage interception from all point and nonpoint sources, above 90% of river reaches were predicted to have E2-Eq below 1 ng•L (expected case).