Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling

Qin, Huanhuan1; Zheng, Chunmiao2; He, Xin3,4; Refsgaard, Jens Christian4

2019-12-02

10.1007/s11269-019-02410-9

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT   影响因子和分区

0920-4741

1573-1650

The North China Plain (NCP) has been affected by severe water scarcity over the past several decades. To address this issue, several water management plans have already been launched. Among them, the new South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) draws the most attention. However, the effectiveness of the SNWDP is yet to be evaluated. In the present study, we developed a coupled hydrological and system dynamics (SD) model to analyze water management scenarios for the NCP: S1: business as usual, S2: less agricultural water, S3: more domestic and industrial water reuse, S4: SNWDP, and S5: combined efforts. The impact of climate change has been accounted for in all scenarios. The SD model was based on VENSIM, and the hydrological model was based on the MIKE SHE code. The results indicated that the groundwater development in the NCP will not be sustainable without exploiting the full potential of the SNWDP resource. However, the SNWDP alone can only lessen the water crisis, it is not able to stop the groundwater storage from further declining. Solving the water scarcity problem in the NCP will require a combination of highly reduced water use and a continued water supply from the SNWDP. Our results also indicated that innovative water saving technologies are urgently needed in the restructuring of the industrial sector. Furthermore, the study illustrated an added challenge to water management since the uncertainty range on climate change impacts are shown to be of the same magnitude as the impacts of combined management measures. Therefore, it requires great caution when making the future water management strategies in the NCP.

Hydrological model System dynamics (SD) model Water resources management North China Plain (NCP) South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) Climate change

SCI ; EI

英语

通讯

DANIDA fund[17-M08-GEU]

Engineering ; Water Resources

Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources

WOS:000499989400001

SPRINGER

20195007803557

Climate change ; Climate models ; Flood control ; Groundwater ; Groundwater resources ; Hydrology ; System theory ; Wastewater reclamation ; Water management ; Water supply

Flood Control:442.1 ; Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Water Resources:444 ; Groundwater:444.2 ; Water Supply Systems:446.1 ; Industrial Wastes Treatment and Disposal:452.4 ; Mathematics:921 ; Systems Science:961

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

Web of Science

1.East China Inst Technol, State Key Lab Nucl Resources & Environm, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Dept Water Resources, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
4.Geol Survey Denmark & Greenland, Dept Hydrol, Oester Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark

Qin, Huanhuan,Zheng, Chunmiao,He, Xin,et al. Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019,33(14):4849-4863.

Qin, Huanhuan,Zheng, Chunmiao,He, Xin,&Refsgaard, Jens Christian.(2019).Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,33(14),4849-4863.

Qin, Huanhuan,et al."Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 33.14(2019):4849-4863.