Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming

Yang，Hu1,2; Lohmann，Gerrit1,3; Stepanek，Christian1; Wang，Qiang1; Huang，Rui Xin4; Shi，Xiaoxu1,2; Liu，Jiping2,5; Chen，Dake2; Wang，Xulong6,7; Zhong，Yi8; Yang，Qinghua2,5; Bao，Ying9; Müller，Juliane1,3

2023-12-01

10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w

Communications Earth and Environment   影响因子和分区

2662-4435

Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming pattern and find that the predominant warming over the subtropical oceans, while mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar ocean, is dynamically consistent with the convergence and divergence of surface water. By comparison of observations, paleo-reconstructions, and model simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely a short-term transient response to the increased CO forcing, which only emerges during the early stage of anthropogenic warming. On centennial to millennial timescales, the subpolar ocean warming is expected to exceed the temporally dominant warming of the subtropical ocean. This delayed but amplified subpolar ocean warming has the potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.

SCI

英语

其他

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft["EXC 2077","390741603"] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)["42206256","42274094","41941009"] ; Program of Marine Economy Development Special Fund under Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province[GDNRC [2022]18]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000994298400001

SPRINGERNATURE

2-s2.0-85160045313

Scopus

1.Alfred Wegener Institute,Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,Bremerhaven,Germany
2.Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai),Zhuhai,China
3.Center for Marine Environmental Sciences,MARUM,University of Bremen,Bremen,Germany
4.Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,Woods Hole,United States
5.School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,China
6.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an,China
7.CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an,China
8.Centre for Marine Magnetism,Department of Ocean Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
9.First Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao,China

Yang，Hu,Lohmann，Gerrit,Stepanek，Christian,et al. Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming[J]. Communications Earth and Environment,2023,4(1).

Yang，Hu.,Lohmann，Gerrit.,Stepanek，Christian.,Wang，Qiang.,Huang，Rui Xin.,...&Müller，Juliane.(2023).Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming.Communications Earth and Environment,4(1).

Yang，Hu,et al."Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming".Communications Earth and Environment 4.1(2023).