Predicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on globalization

Zhang，Yi1,2; Sun，Fangfang2; Huang，Zhiqiu3; Song，Lan1; Jin，Shufang4; Chen，Long2

2023-07-10

10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137173

Journal of Cleaner Production   影响因子和分区

0959-6526

1879-1786

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced the global economy, international travel, global supply chains, and how people interact, and subsequently affect globalization in coming years. In order to understand the impact of COVID-19 on globalization and provide potential guidance to policymakers, the present study predicted the globalization level of the world average and 14 specific countries in scenarios with and without COVID-19 based on a new Composite Indicator method which contains 15 indicators. Our results revealed that the world average globalization level is expected to decrease from 2017 to 2025 under the scenario without COVID-19 by −5.99%, while the decrease of globalization under the COVID-19 scenario is predicted to reach −4.76% in 2025. This finding implies that the impact of COVID-19 on globalization will not be as severe as expected in 2025. Nevertheless, the downward trend of globalization without COVID-19 is due to the decline of the Environmental indicators, whereas the decline under the COVID-19 scenario is attributed to Economic aspects (almost −50%). The impact of COVID-19 on globalization varies across individual countries. Among the countries investigated, COVID-19 had a positive impact on the globalization of Japan, Australia, the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, India and Togo. In contrast, the globalization in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Qatar, Egypt, China and Gabon are expected to decrease. The variation of impact induced by COVID-19 on those countries is attributed to the weighting of economic, environmental and political aspects of globalization is different across these countries. Our results can help governments take suitable measures to balance economic, environmental and political policies, which may better support their decision-making.

COVID-19 pandemic Globalization forecast Globalization index Quantitative globalization evaluation

SCI ; EI

英语

第一 ; 通讯

Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences

WOS:000990391000001

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

20231714024338

Behavioral research ; Decision making ; Supply chains

Ergonomics and Human Factors Engineering:461.4 ; Health Care:461.7 ; Inventory Control:911.3 ; Industrial Engineering and Management:912 ; Management:912.2 ; Production Planning and Control; Manufacturing:913 ; Social Sciences:971

2-s2.0-85153575828

Scopus

1.Shenzhen Institute of Sustainable Development,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
2.Shenzhen Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shenzhen,518001,China
3.Shenzhen Maritime Safety Administration,Shenzhen,519032,China
4.Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen,Shenzhen,518055,China

Zhang，Yi,Sun，Fangfang,Huang，Zhiqiu,et al. Predicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on globalization[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2023,409.

Zhang，Yi,Sun，Fangfang,Huang，Zhiqiu,Song，Lan,Jin，Shufang,&Chen，Long.(2023).Predicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on globalization.Journal of Cleaner Production,409.

Zhang，Yi,et al."Predicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on globalization".Journal of Cleaner Production 409(2023).