Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Du，Erhu1; Wu，Feng2; Jiang，Hao3; Guo，Naliang2; Tian，Yong3; Zheng，Chunmiao3,4

2023-04-17

10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences   影响因子和分区

1027-5606

1607-7938

In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have had a limited understanding of how evacuation performance is affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters (with respect to their number and geographical distribution) and human behaviors (with respect to the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route-searching strategies). In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong'an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes for various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees' route choices, traffic congestion will likely occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model with respect to supporting flood risk assessment and advancing our understanding of how multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performance.

SCI ; EI

英语

通讯

Geology ; Water Resources

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources

WOS:000973553900001

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

20231914078536

Autonomous agents ; Behavioral research ; Computational methods ; Geographical distribution ; Risk assessment ; Traffic congestion

Surveying:405.3 ; Ergonomics and Human Factors Engineering:461.4 ; Engineering Graphics:902.1 ; Accidents and Accident Prevention:914.1 ; Social Sciences:971

GEOSCIENCES

2-s2.0-85158867399

Scopus

1.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Hohai University,Nanjing,China
2.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
3.State Environ. Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
4.EIT Institute for Advanced Study,Ningbo,Zhejiang,China

Du，Erhu,Wu，Feng,Jiang，Hao,et al. Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2023,27(7):1607-1626.

Du，Erhu,Wu，Feng,Jiang，Hao,Guo，Naliang,Tian，Yong,&Zheng，Chunmiao.(2023).Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,27(7),1607-1626.

Du，Erhu,et al."Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 27.7(2023):1607-1626.