Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990–2044

Zhang，Jingya1; Lu，Yongbo1; Zhang，Ning1; Yu，Zeru1; Li，Haorao1; He，Rongxin2; Mao，Ying1; Zhu，Bin3

2023

10.1002/cnr2.1827

Cancer Reports   影响因子和分区

2573-8348

Background: Breast cancer is a widespread disease in women worldwide. Aim: We aimed to explore the global epidemiological trends of female breast cancer (FBC) between 1990 and 2044. Methods and Results: Disease burden, population, and socio-demographic index (SDI) data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database. We analyzed temporal trends, age differences, risk factors, and geographic patterns of FBC disease burden globally and explored the association between age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of FBC and SDI. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also performed to predict the changes in FBC incidence worldwide from 2020 to 2044. First, the global ASIR of FBC increased by 14.31% from 1990 to 2019 (95% Uncertainty Interval 4.75% to 23.98%). The death rate presented a falling trend. Second, alcohol use is the most-highlighted risk factor for FBC in some high-income regions such as Europe. A high fasting plasma glucose levels is the most prominent risk factor for FBC in Latin America and Africa. Third, the ASIR of the FBC increases with the SDI. Fourth, the incidence is expected to increase faster among women aged 35–60 years and fastest for those aged 50–54 years from 2020 to 2044. Countries with a high incidence of FBC that is expected to increase significantly include Barbados, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Monaco, Lebanon, Togo, and Uganda. Conclusion: The disease burden of FBC varies worldwide; the findings suggest attaching importance to the control of middle and low-middle SDI regions. Public health as well as cancer prevention experts should pay more attention to regions and populations at an increased risk of developing FBC, focusing on their prevention and rehabilitation while conducting further epidemiological studies to investigate the risk factors of their increase.

female breast cancer global incidence prediction risk factor

ESCI

英语

通讯

Oncology

Oncology

WOS:000972913000001

WILEY

2-s2.0-85153599265

Scopus

1.School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an,China
2.Vanke School of Public Health,Tsinghua University,Beijing,China
3.School of Public Health and Emergency Management,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong,China

Zhang，Jingya,Lu，Yongbo,Zhang，Ning,等. Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990–2044[J]. Cancer Reports,2023.

Zhang，Jingya.,Lu，Yongbo.,Zhang，Ning.,Yu，Zeru.,Li，Haorao.,...&Zhu，Bin.(2023).Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990–2044.Cancer Reports.

Zhang，Jingya,et al."Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990–2044".Cancer Reports (2023).