Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044

Yu，Zeru1; Zhang，Jingya1; Lu，Yongbo1; Zhang，Ning1; Wei，Bincai2; He，Rongxin3; Mao，Ying1

2023

10.3390/ijerph20010840

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health   影响因子和分区

1661-7827

1660-4601

Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the three major disabling diseases in the world. However, the current disease burden in China is not well-known. This study aimed to explore the burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2019, predicting the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. All data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend, and descriptive analyses of the time trends and age distributions of risk factors were performed. The Bayesian APC model was used to foresee the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. The results indicated that the burden of musculoskeletal disorders is higher in women and older adults. Its attributable risk factors were found to be tobacco, a high body mass index, kidney dysfunction and occupational risks. In 2044, musculoskeletal disorders in China showed a downward trend for 35–59-year-olds and a slight upward trend for 30–34- and 65–84-year-olds. The 70–74 year age group saw the largest increase in incidence at 4.66%. Overall, the incidence increased with age. Therefore, prevention and control policies should focus on women and the elderly, and health interventions should be carried out based on risk factors.

age–period–cohort model burden of diseases joinpoint regression musculoskeletal disorders prediction risk factors

SCI ; SSCI

英语

其他

Department of Education of Guangdong Province[2022WTSCX100];

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

WOS:000909085700001

MDPI

2-s2.0-85145977098

Scopus

1.School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an,710049,China
2.School of Public Health and Emergency Management,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
3.Vanke School of Public Health,Tsinghua University,Beijing,Haidian District,100084,China

Yu，Zeru,Zhang，Jingya,Lu，Yongbo,et al. Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2023,20(1).

Yu，Zeru.,Zhang，Jingya.,Lu，Yongbo.,Zhang，Ning.,Wei，Bincai.,...&Mao，Ying.(2023).Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,20(1).

Yu，Zeru,et al."Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044".International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20.1(2023).