楼宇电热综合能源系统运行优化策略

       能源是经济社会发展的重要物质基础和动力源泉。为应对环境污染、化石能源日益枯竭等难题，发展清洁、高效的电热综合能源系统已成为一种有效的途径。电热综合能源系统可利用电热互补特性促进可再生能源消纳，相比于各能源单独运行可提高能源利用效率。同时，考虑楼宇的蓄热特性可进一步增强电热系统的灵活性。然而综合能源系统运行过程中存在不确定性因素，影响系统运行安全性与经济性。如何在不确定环境下对系统进行运行调度并确保全局最优性和计算高效性是一项相对有挑战性的工作。本文针对楼宇电热综合能源系统运行优化问题，设计调度策略来保证用户舒适度并确保系统安全经济运行。本文主要工作如下：
     （1）在楼宇供热系统运行调度方面，提出了考虑楼宇蓄热特性的在线优化算法。首先，构建楼宇热动态模型，建立包含系统运行成本和用户舒适度成本的随机优化问题。本文将热负荷由单一标量转为热需求区间，充分利用楼宇蓄热特性，提高了供热系统灵活性。为解决供热系统中的耦合约束，提高计算效率，本文将原调度问题转为多个子问题并进行在线求解。最后，仿真分析了在线算法可降低系统总成本并保证用户舒适度。
    （2）针对含热储能的楼宇供热系统运行调度问题，构建随机优化模型来最小化供热系统期望总成本，提出了基于李雅普诺夫优化理论的在线算法。本文建立虚拟队列与耦合约束的映射关系，构造虚拟队列网络，定义李雅普诺夫漂移加惩罚函数，在线求解多个子优化问题。结果表明热储能可进一步提高系统灵活性，降低系统运行成本。最后，证明在线算法收敛性。
    （3）为应对光伏出力和电负荷不确定性对电热系统运行的影响，本文构建混合整数规划模型并基于信息间隙决策理论提出了双层运行调度模型。下层旨在最小化包含用户舒适度的系统成本，上层考虑不确定参数对系统的积极和消极影响，构建风险规避模型和机会寻求模型。最后，利用Gurobi 对其进行求解，仿真表明在风险规避模型中设置适当的运行成本最大化不确定度可提高系统鲁棒性，在机会寻求模型中追求系统收益最小化不确定度可减少系统风险。

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