气候变化背景下珠江流域干旱传播特征的评估与预测及对植被的影响研究

干旱是最具破坏性的环境灾害之一，能够对人民生命财产安全造成破坏性的影响。一般来说，干旱具有发生范围广、演化过程慢和持续时间长的特点，其可对农业生产、社会经济和生态系统造成广泛和持久的影响。即使在科技高速发展的今天，旱灾造成的严重后果仍无法避免。因此，有必要研究干旱的发生、演化规律及其对植被的影响，从而为干旱预警和抗旱减灾提供科学依据和决策支持。

珠江流域对中国的社会经济发展有着重要意义，已成为中国二氧化碳的主要排放源。珠江流域地处湿润地区，植被生态系统复杂，流域内植被的固碳能力对双碳目标的实现具有重要意义；然而，受全球气候变暖的影响，该流域内干旱事件的发生频率提高、严重程度加剧，显著影响流域内植被的生长发育。因此，评估和预测珠江流域的干旱及其传播特征、探究干旱与植被的关系对研究干旱灾害的演变和实现双碳目标具有重要意义。

本研究以珠江流域为例，分别利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化径流指数（SRI）表征气象干旱和水文干旱，开展了如下工作：首先，分析了1981-2019年珠江流域气象干旱和水文干旱的时空变化特征及其驱动力；然后，利用最大相关系数法和新引入的定向信息传递指数（DITI）改进了现有的干旱传播评价体系，确定了更加合理的干旱响应时间，并利用游程理论和多种数学函数构建了干旱传播模型并得到了干旱触发阈值；进而，研究了植被与气象干旱之间的响应关系，对比了不同植被类型上归一化植被指数（NDVI）和日光诱导叶绿素荧光（SIF）对气象干旱的响应差异，并结合连续小波、交叉小波和小波偏相干等方法，从气候动力学的角度分析了遥相关因素（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动ENSO、太平洋年代际震荡指数PDO和太阳黑子Sunspots）对气象干旱与水文干旱之间传播关系和气象干旱与植被之间关系的影响；最后，采用了CMIP6的12个全球气候模式的多模型平均数据，预测了2020-2100年期间两个情景下（SSP2-4.5 和SSP5-8.5）气象干旱和水文干旱的变化特征及传播关系。主要结论如下：

（1）1981-2019年间，珠江流域大部分地区的降水和径流呈现减小趋势，SPI和SRI呈现减小的趋势，流域西部减小趋势比较显著；在2000年以后，流域内呈现干旱化趋势，气象干旱和水文干旱事件均增多。随着时间尺度的增大，干旱的强度和持续时间越大。

（2）珠江流域的干旱响应时间主要集中在2~5个月，在分区1、2、3、4和5中的干旱响应时间分别集中在2~3个月、3~5个月、2个月、3~4个月和2~3个月。在干旱传播的非线性研究中，互信息（MI）可能会高估干旱响应时间，特别是在降水和径流变化较大且水文循环较快的地区。

（3）气象干旱和水文干旱存在相似的共振频率和相位偏移特征，气象干旱是水文干旱的驱动力，这是研究珠江流域气象干旱到水文干旱传播的基础。降水和径流的变化是影响干旱传播的重要因素，而蒸散发和浅层土壤水分对干旱响应时间的影响不显著，降水量和径流量较大的地区更易发生较短时间的干旱传播。相比于Sunspots，ENSO和PDO对气象干旱和水文干旱的响应关系影响更大。

（4）分区1、2、3、4和5的有效干旱传播率分别为0.69、 0.66、0.77、0.70和0.61，分区3的有效干旱传播率最高，分区5的有效干旱传播率最低，主要受干旱事件特征和水文干旱对气象干旱的敏感性影响。分区1、2、3、4和5出现历时为1个月、强度分别为0.75、0.78、0.22、0.62 和0.71的气象干旱事件时，会触发历时1.42、1.04、1.87、1.5 和1.49个月、烈度为0.5的水文干旱事件；气象干旱事件触发阈值较小的分区，水文干旱事件历时较长。

（5）珠江流域的植被呈现增长趋势，相比于NDVI，SIF的变化幅度相对较小。基于NDVI的植被响应时间主要集中在4~5个月，基于SIF的植被响应时间主要集中在3~4个月。干旱与不同植被类型的响应关系存在差异，草本植物对干旱的响应比木本植物更快。相比于ENSO和Sunspots，PDO对干旱和植被之间的响应关系影响更大。

（6）与历史干旱相比，珠江流域未来的气象干旱和水文干旱将呈现更加湿润的格局；更高的排放情景（SSP5-8.5）对干旱的减缓作用更大。在不同情景下，珠江流域气象干旱到水文干旱的干旱响应时间主要集中在2个月。此外，气象干旱和水文干旱在珠江流域中部的恢复时间比较短，东部和西部的恢复时间比较长。恢复时间变异性比较高的地区需要更加关注，其可能更容易受到干旱的影响。

本研究系统分析了珠江流域历史和未来干旱传播特征及对植被的影响，研究结果对区域干旱监测和预警、水资源规划利用、制定灾害防治政策以及双碳目标的实现具有重要意义。

Drought is a highly destructive environmental disaster that can have devastating effects on people's lives and property. It has a wide range of occurrence, a slow evolution process and a long duration, resulting in extensive and lasting impacts on agricultural, ecosystems and social economy. Even with the rapid development of science and technology today, the severe consequences of drought are still unavoidable. Therefore, it is essential to study drought's occurrence, evolution, and impact on vegetation to provide scientific support and decision-making guidance for drought warning and relief efforts.

The Pearl River Basin is of great significance to China's socio-economic development, and has become a major source of carbon dioxide emissions in the country. The basin's complex vegetation ecosystem and its carbon sequestration capacity are essential in achieving China's carbon peaking and neutrality goals. However, global warming has increased the frequency and severity of drought events in the basin, significantly affecting vegetation growth and development. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate and predict drought and its propagation characteristics in the Pearl River Basin and explore the relationship between drought and vegetation in order to study the evolution of drought disaster and achieve the two-carbon goal.

Taking the Pearl River Basin as an example, this study used standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) respectively to characterize meteorological drought and hydrological drought, and carried out the following work: First, the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin during 1981-2019 and their driving forces were analyzed. Then, the maximum correlation coefficient method and the newly introduced directional information transfer index (DITI) were used to improve the existing drought propagation evaluation system, and a more reasonable drought response time was determined. A drought propagation model was constructed using run theory and mathematical functions to determine the drought trigger threshold. Furthermore, the response of vegetation to meteorological drought was studied, and the difference of the response of normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to meteorological drought was compared among different vegetation types. Combined with the methods of continuous wavelet transform (CWT), cross wavelet transform (XWT) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC), the effects of teleconnection factors (ENSO, PDO and Sunspots) on the propagation relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought and the relationship between meteorological drought and vegetation were analyzed from the perspective of climate dynamics. Finally, the multimodel ensemble data of 12 global climate models from CMIP6 were used to predict the change characteristics and propagation relationships of meteorological drought and hydrological drought under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) during 2020-2100. The main conclusions based on the above analysis are as follows:

(1) From 1981 to 2019, precipitation and runoff decreased in most areas of the Pearl River Basin. The SPI and SRI showed a decreasing trend, especially in the western part of the basin. After 2000, the basin showed a trend of drought, and both meteorological drought and hydrological drought events increased. With the increase of time scale, the intensity and duration of drought increase.

(2) The drought response time (DRT) was mainly concentrated in 2–5 months, and the DRT in each sub-region was concentrated in 2–3, 3–5, 2, 3–4, and 2–3 months, respectively. In the nonlinear study of drought propagation, the Mutual information might overestimate the DRT, especially in areas with large changes of precipitation and runoff and fast hydrological cycle.

(3) Meteorological drought and hydrological drought have similar resonance frequency and phase migration characteristics. Meteorological drought is the driving force of hydrological drought, which is the basis for studying the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin. The changes of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration are important factors affecting drought propagation Moreover, shorter DRT is more likely to occur in areas with higher precipitation and runoff.  Compared with Sunspots, ENSO and PDO had more influence on the response relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought.

(4) The effective drought propagation rate in each sub-region was 0.69, 0.66, 0.77, 0.70, and 0.61, respectively, mainly affected by the characteristics of drought events and the sensitivity of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. When meteorological drought events with intensity of 0.75, 0.78, 0.22, 0.62 and 0.71 lasted for 1 month, hydrological drought events with intensity of 0.5 would be triggered, which lasted for 1.42, 1.04, 1.87, 1.5 and 1.49 months. The duration of hydrological drought events was longer in the sub-region with smaller trigger thresholds of meteorological drought events.

(5) The vegetation in the Pearl River Basin showed an increasing trend, and the change magnitude of the SIF was smaller than that of the NDVI. The vegetation response time (VRT) based on the NDVI was concentrated in 4–5 months. The VRT based on the SIF was concentrated in 3–4 months. There are differences in the response of different vegetation types to drought, with herbaceous plants responding more quickly to drought than woody plants. Herbaceous plants responded faster than woody plants to drought. Compared with ENSO and Sunspots, PDO had a greater effect on the response relationship between drought and vegetation.

(6) Compared with the historical drought, the future meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin will be more humid. The higher emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) has a greater effect on drought mitigation. Under different scenarios, the DRT in the Pearl River Basin was mainly concentrated in 2 months. The recovery time of meteorological drought and hydrological drought is shorter in the middle of the Pearl River Basin, and longer in the east and west.

This study systematically analyzed the historical and future drought propagation characteristics of the Pearl River Basin and its impact on vegetation. The results of this study are of great significance for regional drought monitoring and early warning, rational utilization of water resources, formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, and realization of the two-carbon goal.

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