中国地震灾害损失评估方法的研究与应用

当前，地震短临预测技术仍然无法完全实现。因此，为了更有效地准备和应对未来可能发生的潜在破坏性地震，震后科学的应急响应与抗震救灾将是减少地震灾害进一步损失的有效手段。如果能够在地震发生后快速定量地评估此次地震灾害对人类社会所造成的生命损失和经济损失，将会十分有利于当地政府快速了解地震灾害损失规模，并依据定量的损失评估结果，及时做出合理的地震应急响应决策和更有针对性的抗震救灾行动。 为此，本文针对中国大陆地区的破坏性地震，开展地震灾害损失评估方法的 研究与应用。对于基于统计分析的损失评估方法，历史地震损失数据的完整性和 一致性很大程度上决定了地震灾害损失评估分析的质量，同时也是相关工作最基 础和最关键的前置研究。因此，本文建立了 1950 年至今，较为完整的开源中国大 陆破坏性地震综合目录（Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog, MCCDE-CAT），其主体部分包括三个数据库：地震灾害损失数据库、地震烈度数 据库和地震人口暴露数据库。该目录旨在为中国开发地震灾害损失评估模型（包 括人口损失和经济损失）、地震抗震减灾方案规划、地震保险产品设计与定价等研 究领域提供必要的数据资源。 基于 MCCDE-CAT 数据集和经验统计方法，本文开发了地震死亡人数评估模型和地震经济损失评估模型。两种评估模型都充分考虑了空间域上中国不同区域因地震构造特征、地震活动性和社会经济发展等因素差异而导致的评估模型差异化，以及时间域上灾害损失率随社会发展变化而产生的非一致性问题。本文使用正态性检验科学地引入并构造正态累积分布函数，以实现灾害损失范围的概率计算，并提供地震应急响应的建议启动等级。通过大量的地震事件证明了两种评估模型的可靠性和适用性。此外，与其他学者开发的模型对比结果也表明了本评估模型对于中国大陆地区的破坏性地震具有更高的评估精度。 本文基于地震灾害损失评估模型和强地面运动并行数值模拟平台，实现了对 天然地震的灾害损失快速评估。以 2021 年 5 月 21 日 Ms 6.4 级漾濞地震为实际案 例研究。地震发生后，本文基于强地面运动快速模拟地震烈度分布，并将其和人 口暴露数据一同作为输入，进行漾濞地震灾害损失快速评估。模拟过程中充分考 虑实际三维地形和三维地下介质参数，以使计算结果更符合实际物理特征。此外， 本次数值模拟的可靠性得到了近场强震台站波形的对比验证。地震灾害损失快速评估结果表明本次地震最大烈度为 VIII 度，且全部集中在漾濞县内。最大概率死 亡人数区间为 0–10 人（数学期望评估值为 5 人），经济损失区间为 10–100 亿元 （数学期望评估值为 48.62 亿元），建议启动 IV 级地震应急响应预案。该评估结果与地震半年后官方统计结果（因灾死亡3人和经济损失33.2亿元）相贴近，评估效果较为理想。实验结果表明本研究方法用于实际天然地震灾害的快速损失评估工作中具有较高的应用价值，在协助政府进行震后快速应急响应方面具有较大的实用潜力。此外，该方法同样成功应用于 2022 年 9 月 5 日 Ms 6.8 级泸定地震当中，评估结果较为理想。 未来，针对中国大陆天然破坏性地震，应用本研究开发的地震灾害损失评估 模型有望为政府及相关部门，在震前制定抗震设防标准和地震应急预案提供科学 参考；为震后快速应急响应、抗震救灾和资源调配等的决策与行动提供及时且合 理的评估依据；为灾后重建和地震保险赔付等工作提供科学的参考意见。

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