融合区域应力场演化的地震概率预测模型构 建 —以金沙江流域水库地震为例

地震是破坏性最强的自然灾害之一。由于地下断层物性参数及应力状态难以准确获取，加之地震孕育过程极其复杂，致使目前精确的地震预测尚未实现，仍是一个世界性的科学难题。经过不断探索，研究者提出了地震概率预测模型，即以概率形式给出地震发生的可能性，在一定程度上实现了可操作的地震预测。其中描述地震活动统计规律的传染型余震序列模型是应用最为广泛的模型之一。它包含背景地震和触发地震两部分，可准确反映地震的触发特征，但难以描述区域应力场演化引起的背景地震发生率和触发能力变化。另一种应用较多的地震模型是库仑速率-状态模型。它基于速率-状态摩擦准则和地震成核过程，可描述应力演化引起的地震活动性变化，可为这种变化提供物理解释。但它对应力场数据的精度依赖性较强，在余震丛集时期，应力场的时空变化剧烈而迅速，难以准确把握高时间分辨率的应力场信息，此时库仑速率-状态模型难以准确描述地震触发作用。针对已有模型中存在的不足，本研究尝试将应力演化过程引入地震模型中，构建新型地震概率预测模型，并利用金沙江流域向家坝-溪洛渡库区地震活动，对所开发的新模型进行有效性检验。

首先，选取向家坝-溪洛渡库区蓄水后地震频度显著增长的三个地区作为研究区域，从前人已有研究成果中获取区域孔隙压力时空演化数据，并对这三个区域内2008-2019 年的地震活动分别进行了分析，获取完备震级。在此基础上，对三个区域的地震活动深度、月频度、时空𝑏 值进行了计算，获取了蓄水前后地震活动性的差异。之后，应用稳态传染型余震序列模型、分段传染型余震序列模型、和库仑速率-状态模型分别对三个研究区域的地震活动进行了分析，发现现有模型均不能很好地解释距离水库相对较近的两个区域的地震活动。进一步分析表明，这两个地区的背景地震发生率在水库蓄水后存在显著变化, 这些变化可能与蓄水活动引起的区域应力场演化有关。

为此，本研究提出了三种区域应力场调制地震活动的模式，并在此基础上分别开发了新型地震概率预测模型。模型一融合已有两种模型的优点，用库仑速率-状态模型获取背景地震发生率，用传染型余震序列模型获取余震触发率；模型二通过构建合适的调制核函数，利用应力演化数据调制传染型余震序列模型中的背景地震发生率及余震触发率；模型三利用库仑速率-状态模型获取背景地震发生率，利用模型二构建的核函数和应力场数据调制传染型余震序列模型的余震触发率。最后，将新开发的模型分别应用于距离水库较近、应力场变化明显的两个研究区域，并与已有模型的分析结果对比。

研究发现三个研究区域的地震活动存在差异。区域1 位于向家坝和溪洛渡水坝之间，同时受向家坝和溪洛渡蓄水影响。蓄水后区域1 地震活动性增强，传染型余震序列模型和库仑速率-状态模型无法很好地描述区域1 的地震活动，融合应力演化的地震概率预测模型相比两种传统模型有显著优势，可较好拟合区域1 的地震活动。进一步分析表明，模型拟合效果受孔隙压力数据的选取及研究区域大小影响。区域2 包括溪洛渡及其上游，主要受溪洛渡蓄水影响。在溪洛渡蓄水后区域2 地震活动性出现显著增长，传染型余震序列模型和库仑速率-状态模型无法很好地拟合该区域地震活动，融合应力演化的地震概率预测模型相比两种传统模型有显著优势。进一步分析表明，模型拟合效果受孔隙压力数据点的深度以及介质渗透率参数选取影响。所开发的三个新模型在上述两个区域中，表现最佳的均为模型三，即库仑速率-状态模型获取背景地震发生率，应力场数据调制传染型余震序列模型的余震触发率。这表明，区域应力场变化不仅影响背景地震发生率，也调制地震触发能力。区域3 位于向家坝和溪洛渡的南部，距两座水坝较远。在溪洛渡蓄水后，区域3 地震活动性没有明显变化，可以较好的用传染型余震序列模型拟合。向家坝蓄水后该区域地震活动性增长主要是因为2012 年𝑀5.6 彝良地震触发的余震。

综上，本文提出的融合区域应力演化的地震概率预测新模型有效结合了地震触发的统计特征和应力对地震的调制作用，可用于分析受区域应力场变化影响的复杂地震活动，并能在一定程度上反映地震的物理机制。相关研究成果可为地震活动分析提供更精确的模型工具和更准确的物理解释，可为生产活动如水库蓄水、页岩气压裂、废水回注等提供诱发地震风险分析技术手段。

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