青藏高原地下水储量对气候变化 响应的研究

青藏高原地区是亚洲众多大江大河的发源地，被称为“亚洲水塔”，关系着下游十余个国家、近20亿人口的水安全和粮食安全。在全球持续变暖背景下，青藏高原正在发生一系列以失衡为特征的剧烈变化，例如冰川退缩、积雪消融、冻土退化、湖泊扩张、径流变化等。青藏高原干旱期河流的水量以及脆弱的生态系统主要由地下水维系，因此监测地下水储量对青藏高原水资源管理至关重要。气候变化深刻影响着青藏高原地下水流系统的补给、径流和排泄以及储存空间，导致地下水储量发生变化。由于青藏高原地形险峻、生存环境恶劣，实地观测数据匮乏，限制了地下水储量对气候变化响应的相关研究，地下水储量变化的驱动因素尚不清晰。为解决上述科学问题，本研究以重力恢复与气候实验（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment，GRACE）卫星重力测量为主，结合实地测量、遥感观测、全球模型和再分析等多源数据，定量解析了青藏高原陆地水储量变化，进而揭示地下水储量的时空演变特征及驱动因素，并与其他独立估计地下水储量的方法作对比。研究发现在2002~2017年间，青藏高原地下水储量整体呈增加趋势（2.85±1.55 Gt/yr），但在空间上呈现出一定差异，在东北部和大部分冰川区呈增加趋势，而在南部和塔里木河上游西部呈减少趋势。导致地下水储量整体呈增加趋势的主要原因可能是气温上升使得固态水（冰川、积雪和多年冻土冰）以17.72±1.53 Gt/yr的速率向液态水加速转化，为地下水提供了更多补给。基流衰退分析和地下水监测井计算的地下水储量变化与基于GRACE卫星重力观测反演的结果在趋势方向上较为一致，但变化速率存在较大差异。对比本研究结果，目前大多数全球水文模型和陆面模式由于未考虑冰川或冻土融水的影响，无法模拟出青藏高原地下水储量增加的趋势。在未来气温可能持续上升的情景下，青藏高原冰冻圈加速退化将会使得地下水储量可能在未来一段时间内继续增加，然而有限的固态水资源使得这种增加不可持续。本研究揭示了在全球变暖背景下青藏高原冰冻圈退化对地下水系统的重要影响，为预测未来不同情景下青藏高原水资源演变提供了关键科学信息。

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